Morning Ag Commentary 2019-04-02T14:00:40+00:00

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Oct 14 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. CZ is down 1 cent and near 3.96. WZ is unchanged and near 5.08. SX is up 1 cent and near 9.37. Washington will be closed on today for holiday. This delays export inspection and weekly crop condition reports. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher.

Key to prices is demand for US export, global weather and US/China trade deal? The problem with the China trade deal is the lack clarity in the announced US and China deal. Trade will also be watching for news about global economies and tensions in the Middle East.

Brazilian farmers have planted 9.5% of the expected area of soybeans in the 2019/20 crop, compared to 21.1% at this time last year and an average of 12.4% over the last five seasons, the ARC Mercosul consultancy said.

It could take 4-6 weeks before a written deal can be prepared. $40-60 billion dollars of Ag good China has agreed to buy has no specific product list and does not start until 2022. There was also no talk by either side about reducing existing tariffs. The deal only stops the 5 pct increase in China goods scheduled for October 15. Phase 1 deal is expected to be signed November 16 in Chile. The previous largest annual buying by China of US Ag goods was $27 billion in 2017.

China’s soybean imports in September fell 13.5% from the previous month, customs data showed; China brought in 8.2 million tons of the oilseed in September, down from last month’s 9.48 million ton. The figure was above 8.01 million tons in the same month a year ago. China’s pig herd shrank by 38.7% in August versus a year ago, according to data published. Many in the industry believe the reduction could be much larger than official data suggest

NOPA September U.S. soy crush seen at 162.193 mln bushels. The crush would top the previous September record of 160.779 million bushels, set last year, but would be down from the 168.085 million bushels crushed in August. The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CDT on Tuesday.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has some light rains through the region midweek then, turning drier into the weekend until another system comes mid-next week. Temps will range from below average through the week to a bit above average for the weekend and the first half of next week.

The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook has below average precip and below average temps for the Plains and Midwest.

The South American weather forecast for the next 6 to 10 days has rains for most areas of Brazil’s growing regions with things turning mainly dry in Argentina. Temps in Argentina are below average, above in Brazil.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

October 14th, 2019|
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Oct 14 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. CZ is down 1 cent and near 3.96. WZ is unchanged and near 5.08. SX is up 1 cent and near 9.37. Washington will be closed on today for holiday. This delays export inspection and weekly crop condition reports. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher.

Key to prices is demand for US export, global weather and US/China trade deal? The problem with the China trade deal is the lack clarity in the announced US and China deal. Trade will also be watching for news about global economies and tensions in the Middle East.

Brazilian farmers have planted 9.5% of the expected area of soybeans in the 2019/20 crop, compared to 21.1% at this time last year and an average of 12.4% over the last five seasons, the ARC Mercosul consultancy said.

It could take 4-6 weeks before a written deal can be prepared. $40-60 billion dollars of Ag good China has agreed to buy has no specific product list and does not start until 2022. There was also no talk by either side about reducing existing tariffs. The deal only stops the 5 pct increase in China goods scheduled for October 15. Phase 1 deal is expected to be signed November 16 in Chile. The previous largest annual buying by China of US Ag goods was $27 billion in 2017.

China’s soybean imports in September fell 13.5% from the previous month, customs data showed; China brought in 8.2 million tons of the oilseed in September, down from last month’s 9.48 million ton. The figure was above 8.01 million tons in the same month a year ago. China’s pig herd shrank by 38.7% in August versus a year ago, according to data published. Many in the industry believe the reduction could be much larger than official data suggest

NOPA September U.S. soy crush seen at 162.193 mln bushels. The crush would top the previous September record of 160.779 million bushels, set last year, but would be down from the 168.085 million bushels crushed in August. The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CDT on Tuesday.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has some light rains through the region midweek then, turning drier into the weekend until another system comes mid-next week. Temps will range from below average through the week to a bit above average for the weekend and the first half of next week.

The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook has below average precip and below average temps for the Plains and Midwest.

The South American weather forecast for the next 6 to 10 days has rains for most areas of Brazil’s growing regions with things turning mainly dry in Argentina. Temps in Argentina are below average, above in Brazil.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

October 14th, 2019|
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