Sept 20 Morning Ag Commentary

by Michael Niemiec,

Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 1 in HRW, and up 4 for HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 20 points.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 6 cents for Soft Red Winter, up 11 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 20 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is up 4 cents; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal down $5.00, and; Soyoil up 30 points (crushing margins are down 1 cents at $0.87, oil-share is up 1% at 33%).

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 30 yuan in Soybeans, down 16 in Corn, down 6 in Soymeal, down 56 in Soyoil, and down 66 in Palm Oil. The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 15 ringgit at 2,228 (basis December) at midsession on sluggish private exporter estimates.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had no major changes as average to above average rainfall will be across the region over the next 10 days—-temps will be running above average across all of the region for the period.

The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook has average to above average precip and average temps for the Plains and Midwest.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,600; Corn down 5,600; Soybeans up 11,900 contracts; Soymeal up 740 lots, and; Soyoil down 170.

A trade adviser to Donald Trump has said the U.S. president is ready to escalate the ongoing trade war with China if a trade deal is not agreed soon, the South China Morning Post reported;

For the week ended September 12th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 21% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 29% with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year

For the week ended September 12th, U.S. Corn sales are running 48% behind a year ago, shipments 52% behind with the USDA forecasting a unchanged on the year

For the week ended September 12th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 37% behind a year ago, shipments 28% behind with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year

Brazil’s primary corn and soybean growing regions are historically dry as planting for the 2019-20 cycle begins; rains should begin soon though weather forecasts disagree on the intensity, but either way, analysts see both upcoming harvests hitting new records early next year

Unusually dry weather is making Argentine farmers nervous as they wait for October rains to revive parched corn crops, adding to uncertainty around next month’s presidential election that could see business-friendly incumbent Mauricio Macri lose power

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2019-09-20T13:14:18+00:00 September 20th, 2019|