Sept 9 Morning Ag Commentary

by Michael Niemiec,

Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 4 in HRW, and unchanged for HRS; Corn is down fractionally; Soybeans down 2 cents; Soymeal down $0.50, and; Soyoil down 15 points.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 1 cent for Soft Red Winter, down 4 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 2 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 14 cents; Soybeans down 12; Soymeal down $2.00, and; Soyoil down 15 points (crushing margins are up 5 cents at $1.02, oil-share is unchanged at 32%).

It’s USDA report week with the monthly S/D tallies out Thursday. Average trade estimate for corn yield is 167.2 bpa vs 169.5 mil a month ago; soybeans 47.2 (48.5 bpa). The ’18-19 U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 2.401 bil bu (2.360 bil last month), and 1.054 bil bu for soybeans (1.070 bil). The 2019/20 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 1.016 bil bu (1.014 bil previously).

China reported their trade with the U.S. shrunk for August with imports of American goods down 22% from a year ago, exports to the U.S. were down 16%. U.S. ag groups told President Trump the proposed biofuel reform package (increase biofuel requirements in 2020 by 1.0 bil gallons) fell short of expectations. Wire story reports the U.S.-Japan corn deal has one flaw—Japan doesn’t need the corn.

For the week ended August 29th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 22% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 30% with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year

—U.S. Corn sales are running 18% behind a year ago, shipments 15% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline on the year

—U.S. Soybean sales are running 17% behind a year ago, shipments 18% behind with the USDA forecasting a 20% decline on the year

China’s August imports of soybeans totaled 9.48 million tons, up from 8.64 million tons in July, and ahead of 9.15 million tons in August last year

—China bought 56.31 million tons of soybeans in the first eight months of the year, down 9.2% from last year, customs data showed.

Export prices for Russian wheat fell this week for the sixth consecutive week and reached their lowest level since October, Black Sea prices for wheat with 12.5% protein content fell by $2.50 from the previous week to $186.5 a ton.

Ukraine’s grain exports have risen to 9.79 million tons so far in the 2019/20 July-June export season, from 6.30 million tons at the same time last year.

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2019-09-09T13:07:46+00:00 September 9th, 2019|