Aug 9 Morning Ag Commentary

by Michael Niemiec,

Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, unchanged in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $1.00, and; Soyoil up 45 points.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 10 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 4 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 2 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is up 10 cents; Soybeans up 21; Soymeal up $3.00, and; Soyoil up 125 points (crushing margins are up 1 cent at $1.06, oil-share is up 1% at 33%).

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 15 in Soybeans, down 24 in Corn, up 24 yuan in Soymeal, up 142 in Soyoil, and up 92 in Palm Oil. The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 41 at 2,176 (basis October) trading at some of its highest levels since April.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast ends the week with no major changes over the next 10 days with less than average precip—especially in the east and, and average to below average temps.

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Midwest once again changed with the GFS showing near average temps and precip average to a bit below; the European showing ridging across the Midwest bringing hot weather to all of the region.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 8,600 contracts; HRW Wheat down 3,200; Corn down 6,000; Soybeans down 2,700 contracts; Soymeal down 1,000 lots, and; Soyoil up 7,500.

For the week ended August 1st, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 25% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 25% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year.

U.S. Corn sales are running 17% behind a year ago, shipments 11% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline on the year.

U.S. Soybean sales are running 16% behind a year ago, shipments 21% behind with the USDA forecasting a 20% decline on the year.

Brazilian farmers are forecast to plant more corn in the 2019/2020 crop season as they expect favorable prices amid problems affecting the U.S. corn harvest and record Brazilian exports of the commodity this year; according to a Reuters poll; Brazilian corn farmers are planning to increase planted area by 3.46% in the season that will begin around September, and are expected to harvest an estimated 101.91 million tons of the crop, setting a new record. 

Ukraine’s grain exports have risen to about 4.7 million tons so far in the 2019/20 July-June export season, up from 3.1 million tons at the same time last year, the agriculture ministry said.

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2019-08-09T13:06:54+00:00 August 9th, 2019|