June 12 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are lower.  SN is down 2 cents and near 8.56. CN is down 1 cent and near 4.26. WN is unchanged and near 5.18. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower.

Chicago corn futures ticked lower on Wednesday as the market took a breather after climbing nearly 3% in the last session on a forecast of a larger-than-expected reduction in U.S. yields. Wheat fell for the first time in three sessions, while soybeans eased. The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 0.3% at $4.26-1/2 a bushel by having risen 2.9% in the previous session. Wheat lost 0.3 percent to $5.16-1/2 a bushel, after ending Tuesday up 2.1% and soybeans were down 0.2% at $8.58 a bushel.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in a monthly report on Tuesday slashed its corn yield projection by 10 bushels an acre from May, or 5.7%, to 166 bushels. Analysts had expected a smaller decline to 172.4 bushels. The drop, along with a 3-percent decrease in the USDA’s expectation for how many acres farmers will plant, left the government’s production estimate at 13.68 billion bushels. That would be the smallest harvest in four years.

The agency on Tuesday kept its production and yield estimates for soybeans unchanged from last month, surprising analysts who were generally looking for declines. The crop is typically planted after corn. Farmers who were unable to plant corn could grow soybeans on those acres instead, adding to supplies. The USDA said late on Monday that it was looking into ways to allow farmers who have been unable to plant crops due to rain to qualify for farm aid payments linked to trade disputes.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, soybean, soymeal and wheat futures contracts on Tuesday, and net sellers of soyoil contracts, traders said.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast continues with above average rainfall being seen across the region favoring the east all the way through the first half of next week.

The Southern U.S. Plains is still forecasted to have above average rainfall favoring the east all the way through early next week. The Northern U.S. Plains will continue to see close to average precip for the region—temps will be running average to below average for the rest of the week warming to above average for the weekend and early next week.

The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states will be mostly dry over the next couple days with a few light showers Saturday before shower activity increases Sunday into next week.

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook has above average precip for most of the Plains and the Midwest with the potential for some excessive rains in eastern Kansas/Oklahoma.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-06-12T12:40:51+00:00 June 12th, 2019|