May 16 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are higher.  SN is up 6 cents and near 8.42. CN is up 6 cents and near 3.75. WN is up 9 cents and near 4.58. US stocks should open higher. Crude is higher. (Middle East tension).

Wet US weather could reduce US corn yield and acres. Some could see final US 2019 corn crop 1.0 billion bushels lower than USDA May estimate. Corn market may need to rally above resistance to encourage farmer selling into the demand pipeline and try to buy additional acres in areas that are planting.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said his department is looking at $15 billion to $20 billion in aid for farmers hurt by the Trump administration’s trade war with China. Perdue said he was still working out the source of the funding, but it would likely involve the commodity credit corporation, similar to a $12 billion package last year. Farmers would likely receive direct payments.

Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 150-500 mt (old and new crop), soybeans 300-1,000 mt (old and new crop) and 300-900 mt (old and new crop).

NOPA members processed 159.990 million bushels of soybeans last month, down from 170.011 million bushels in March and below the 161.016 million bushels crushed in April 2018, the record for the month; April’s crush was expected to rise to 161.607 million bushels.

The U.S.-China trade war is hurting the U.S. ethanol industry “badly,” Mike Dwyer, chief economist of the U.S. Grains Council, said; without the tariff protection we would probably supply 90-plus percent of all (ethanol) import needs they (China) had.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had no major changes with a disturbance moving through the northern areas of the Midwest today and tomorrow before a couple of strong and slow moving systems come through the weekend and the first part of next week. Now another low is indicated to bring rains to the northern sections of the Midwest by the very end of next week.

The Southern U.S. Plains had no major changes as dry weather will lead to rains for the region over the weekend and another system early next week; the rest of next week looks mainly dry.

The Northern U.S. Plains will be dry until systems move through the region starting over the weekend and then another early next week. Now a third rain event is showing up for the very end of next week. Temps will be running below average.

The U.S. Delta and the Southeast did see the Delta turn a little wetter, but overall, the Delta and the Southeast are still expected to see a net drying trend during the next two weeks.

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook has ridging developing by the 10 day in the southeast U.S. and expand to allow below average precip and above average temps to dominate most of the Midwest, Delta, and southern Plains. Above average precip and below normal temps are seen in the Northern Plains.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-05-16T13:14:05+00:00 May 16th, 2019|