May 15 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are higher.  Wet US spring weather is helping prices. SN is up 12 cents and near 8.43. CN is up 7 cents and near 3.76. WN is up 6 cents and near 4.54. July grain and soybean futures near key resistance. Higher trade could suggest a change in trend/momentum. Not sure which is harder to trade, weather markets or trade wars. US stocks should open lower. Crude is lower. US 30 year bonds are higher. US Dollar is higher.

Planting delays, depressed prices and heightened uncertainty over the US-China trade war has many farmers thinking seriously about utilizing the prevented planting provisions in their crop insurance policies. Final planting dates extend as late as June 5.

Escalating US-China trade tensions combined with last year’s outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) and availability of South American oilseeds will likely erode Chinese demand for US soybeans in 2019, according to Fitch Ratings. US Farmer profitability will be negatively affected and commodity price volatility will increase. However, large US agricultural processors’ credit risk should be limited in the near term due to diversified assets, global footprints and well-established risk management practices helping mitigate the negative short-term effects on certain segments

China’s sow herd fell by 22.3% in April compared with the same month a year ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said. The overall pig herd fell by 20.8% from a year earlier, the ministry said; it does not give total herd figures.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast will see spotty rainfall for the week but a pair of strong and slow moving systems will be entering the region except for the southeast quarter of the Midwest by the weekend and for all areas the first half of next week.

The Southern U.S. Plains remain mostly dry for the rest of the week with a couple of systems bringing rains to the region over the weekend and towards the middle of next week. The Northern U.S. Plains look to be dry through Thursday. Rains return heading into the weekend with an additional rain event early next week.

The U.S. Delta and the Southeast will see a drying trend during the next two weeks with only one round of organized rain expected through at least the next ten days.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-05-15T12:41:32+00:00 May 15th, 2019|