Apr 17 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed to higher. SN is up 1 cent and near 9.03. CN is unchanged and near 3.68. WN is up 3 cents and near 4.52. U.S. Dollar is lower. Crude is  higher.

Part of U.S. trade delegation would like to agree to a new U.S. and China trade deal. Others want more concessions from China. There is talk that China would be a willing buyer of U.S. corn and meat as soon as a deal is agreed on. Some feel China may buy 2.0 mmt of U.S. soybean this week as a gesture of good will.

Selling in wheat is linked in part to talk of higher 2019 World wheat crops. Steady managed fund selling is also weighing on wheat futures with little buying under the market.

The next USDA report will be on May 10. It will be the first official USDA estimate of 2019/20 U.S. and World supply and demand. Most estimate U.S. 2018/19 corn carryout higher than USDA 2,035 mil bu due to the lower estimate of U.S. exports. Most estimate U.S. 2019/20 carryout near 2,350 mil bu due to a higher supply. Most estimate U.S. 2018/19 soybean carryout higher than USDA 895 mil bu due to the lower estimate of U.S. exports. Most estimate U.S. 2019/20 carryout near 875 mil bu due to lower acres. Most estimate U.S. 2018/19 wheat carryout higher than USDA 1,087 mil bu due to the lower estimate of U.S. exports. Most estimate U.S. 2019/20 carryout near 1,115 mil bu due to a higher U.S. crop estimate.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has a system moving through the region finishing up on Friday. The weekend looks quiet before another system develops Sunday into the first half of next week being fairly widespread rains. Temps will be running below average to average over the next 10 days.

The U.S. Plains forecast has rains moving through the Plains quieting down by Friday and most of the weekend. The first half of next week sees rains returning to the region. Temps will be moving towards average to above average in the first half of next week.

The U.S. Delta and the Southeast will see rainfall move through the region through Thursday before turning drier into next week. Rainfall is seen returning the middle of next week and then again at the end of the month.

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2019-04-17T13:04:16+00:00 April 17th, 2019|