Apr 16 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are lower. SN is down 1 cent and near 8.97. CN is down I cent and near 3.61. WN is down 2 cents and near 4.56. U.S. Dollar is higher. U.S. stocks are higher.

The U.S. Winter Wheat crop was rated 60% good to excellent (trade estimate 60%) versus 60% a week ago and 31% a year ago. U.S. Corn plantings 3% complete (trade estimate 5%) versus 2% a week ago, 3% a year ago, 5% average. The U.S. Spring Wheat crop was 2% planted (trade estimate 4%) versus 1% a week ago, 3% a year ago, 13% average

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 5% behind a year ago (5% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 5% increase on the year, Corn 14% ahead (16% a week ago) with the USDA down 6% for the season and Soybeans 28% behind (28% behind last week) with the USDA having a 12% decline forecasted on the year

The next USDA report will be in May. It will be the first official USDA estimate of U.S. and World supply and demand. Most estimate U.S. 2018/19 corn carryout higher than USDA 2,035 mil bu due to the lower estimate of U.S. exports. Most estimate U.S. 2019/20 carryout near 2,350 mil bu due to a higher supply.

Most estimate U.S. 2018/19 soybean carryout higher than USDA 895 mil bu due to the lower estimate of U.S. exports. Most estimate U.S. 2019/20 carryout near 875 mil bu due to lower acres. Most estimate U.S. 2018/19 wheat carryout higher than USDA 1,087 mil bu due to the lower estimate of U.S. exports. Most estimate U.S. 2019/20 carryout near 1,115 mil bu due to a higher U.S. crop estimate than USDA.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has two rounds of precip by early next week keeping many areas too wet before an improving trend occurs during the last week of April. The April 23-29 period will be dry most often with only one round of organized precipitation. Most areas will see net drying April 23-29. The U.S. Plains, Delta, and Southeast had changes in the evening model run with increased rainfall in the southeastern states, southeastern Corn Belt, southern Delta, and much of the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region Apr. 28 – 30.

North America weather will trend less wet as the spring advances into summer for the United States and if El Nino weakens significantly there would be potential for some drier conditions to evolve in late summer in the eastern and central Midwest. There is already a dry bias expected in the southeastern United States for May through July and if the U.S. drier late summer weather verifies then there should be increasing rainfall for the dry areas in Canada’s southern Prairies and a decrease in rainfall in northwestern Alberta. Summer temperatures in the United States will be warmer than usual at night and a little less oppressively hot during the afternoons.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-04-16T14:43:56+00:00 April 16th, 2019|