Apr 15 Morning Ag Commentary

by Michael Niemiec,

Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 3 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 3 in HRW, and up 3 for HRS; Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $1.50, and; Soyoil down 10 points.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 1 cent for Soft Red Winter, up 3 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 5 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 20 points (crushing margins are unchanged at $0.98, oil-share is unchanged at 32%).

Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 15 yuan in Soybeans, up 19 in Corn, up 12 in Soymeal, up 16 in Soyoil, and up 4 in Palm Oil. The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 6 ringgit at 2,160 (basis June) weakened by lower crude oil prices but finding support on April 1-15 export estimates versus a month ago.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has an active pattern moving over the Midwest for the next 7 to 10 days; one system finishes up today before another arrives Wednesday and finishing up on Friday; most of the weekend is quiet before another system develops later Sunday into the first half of next week—-temps over the next week to ten days will be running below average.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,000 contracts; HRW Wheat up 770; Corn up 15,600; Soybeans down 3,800 contracts; Soymeal down 1,500 lots, and; Soyoil up 610 lots.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Saturday the U.S. and China are continuing to make progress on trade talks and “getting close to the final round of concluding issues”; Mr. Mnuchin said he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would have two telephone calls this coming week with their Chinese counterparts to work on a narrowing set of issues; he added that the officials are “discussing whether more in-person meetings are necessary.”

NOPA March U.S. Soybean Crush (today at 11 a.m. CDT)

—NOPA members likely crushed 168.028 million bushels of soybeans in March

—Soyoil supplies projected at 1.783 billion pounds

China’s pig herd fell 18.8 percent in March from the previous year, as African swine fever ravaged its vast herd, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said; China’s sow herd dropped 21 percent in March from the same period a year earlier; the pig herd was down 1.2 percent and the sow herd fell 2.3 percent last month from February

Argentina’s soybean farmers picked up the pace of their harvesting, with work done on 16.9% of the area planted as of Thursday, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange; that’s up 10.5 percentage points from a week earlier, but 6.7 percentage points less than on the same date last year.

Corn planting is getting going in the European Union and farmers are expected to expand the crop area this year, encouraged by mild weather and the need to replace drought-hit rapeseed fields, analysts said; France, Germany corn area to rise, Poland more stable.

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2019-04-15T12:37:36+00:00 April 15th, 2019|