Apr 12 Morning Ag Commentary

by Michael Niemiec,

Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 2 in HRW, and down 2 for HRS; Corn is up fractionally; Soybeans up fractionally; Soymeal up $0.50, and; Soyoil up 5 points.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 2 cents for Soft Red Winter, up 1 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 6 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 10 points (crushing margins are unchanged at $0.98, oil-share is unchanged at 32%).

Chinese Ag futures (September) settled down 8 yuan in Soybeans, up 6 in Corn, down 19 in Soymeal, down 16 in Soyoil, and up 4 in Palm Oil. The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 12 ringgit at 2,166 (basis June) awaiting fresh news.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast was more aggressive with a weather disturbance Tuesday into next Thursday; significant rain and some wet snow will be possible from this disturbance and there is potential for at least some impacts from it in the northwestern Hard Red Winter Wheat Region and southeastern Northern Plains; the April 19-25 period is still expected to be drier and many areas will see improving conditions

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 6,800 contracts; HRW Wheat down 3,000; Corn up 15,200; Soybeans up 10,700 contracts; Soymeal down 755 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,600 lots.

In tender activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat

For the week ended April 4th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 7% ahead of a year ago, shipments 3% behind with the USDA forecasting a 5% increase on the year

–Corn 9% behind a year ago, shipments 19% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline

–Soybean 17% behind a year ago, shipments 26% behind with the USDA forecasting a 12% decline

The USDA reports China has made a major purchase of US pork, buying 77,700 metric tons of pork in the period from March 29-April 4; this is over three times larger than China’s previous year-high of 23,800 tons, purchased last month; this now the highest amount of pork sold to China since the trade war began; some forecasters see a loss in pork production this year could result in a net supply gap of almost 10 million metric tons in the total 2019 animal protein supply

China imported 4.91 tons in March, up from 4.46 million tons in February—Imports were still down 13 percent from the same month last year—China Jan-March soybean imports at 16.75 mln tons, down 14.4 pct; imports of vegetable oils in March were 581,000 tons, up 11.7 percent from the previous month.

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2019-04-12T13:18:13+00:00 April 12th, 2019|