Mar 15 Morning Ag Commentary

by Michael Niemiec,

Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 1 cent in the SRW Wheat, down 1 in HRW, and down 1 for HRS; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.00, and; Soyoil down 5 points.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 12 cents for Soft Red Winter, up 3 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 5 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is up 6 cents; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $3.00, and; Soyoil down 15 points (crushing margins are up 1 cent at $0.97, oil-share is unchanged at 32%).

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 28 yuan in Soybeans, up 9 in Corn, up 12 in Soymeal, down 66 in Soyoil, and down 48 in Palm Oil. The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 3 ringgit at 2,066 (basis May) reversing earlier losses of roughly 25 ringgit on some better export demand projections from one of the private surveyors for the March 1-15 period.

The U.S. Delta/Southeast weather forecast has a welcome stretch of much drier weather to follow; no additional storm systems of significance are currently seen through next week.

Brazil’s weather forecast call for regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms continuing through the middle of next week in much of Brazil. Argentina’s weather forecast is a little wetter overall as much of Argentina has adequate soil moisture.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 1,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 155; Corn up 5,300; Soybeans down 860 contracts; Soymeal down 5,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 855 lots.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that whether a trade deal can be reached with China would probably be known in the next three or four weeks, adding that Beijing has been very responsible and very reasonable.

The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m; NOPA members likely crushed 158.730 million bushels of soybeans in February (down from January’s 171.630 million bushels)—Soyoil supplies the end of February were projected at 1.612 billion pounds (1.549 billion pounds at the end of January).

China made its biggest purchases of U.S. pork in nearly two years last week, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed

Argentina’s soybean harvest will likely be 54 million tons in the 2018/19 season, an increase from the previous estimate of 52 million tons (USDA at 55.0 mt), the Rosario grains exchange said; the exchange also increased its projected corn harvest estimate to 47.3 million tons from 46.5 million tons (USDA at 46.0 mt)

—bean crop seen 51% good to excellent versus 52% last week and 3% a year ago

—corn crop 56% good to excellent versus 55% last week and 8% a year ago

Ukraine’s Ag Minister said 87% of the winter grain crop was in good to satisfactory condition.

Farm office FranceAgriMer estimated in a weekly report that 85 percent (pct) of French soft wheat was in good/excellent condition by March 11 against 86 pct a week earlier and versus 80 pct a y/a.


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2019-03-15T13:00:14+00:00 March 15th, 2019|