Feb 13 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. SK is down 1 cent and near 9.31. CK is unchanged and near 3.86. WK is up 1 cent and near 5.22. Crude is higher. US stocks are higher.

Headline trading continues to focus on if US and China can come to a new trade deal. Potential US Partial government shutdown could offer resistance. New legislation to avoid a shutdown does not include the Tax extender and biodiesel subsidy. US Midwest cold weather continues to slow cash movement.

Slow uptrend is soybean futures from double bottom in September is still intact. Numbers are still negative but a new US/China trade deal could send prices higher. Corn futures remain in a trading range. Numbers and cold US weather supportive. Talk of higher 2019 World supplies offers resistance. Rumors China may be asking for US corn prices could help corn prices. Wheat futures also in a range. Drop in World 2019 supplies supportive. Talk of higher World 2019 supplies offers equal resistance.

Brazil’s weather forecast remains with 90% coverage of hit and miss moderate rainfall over the near term. The 6 to 10 day forecast continues with moderate rains for most growing areas.

Argentina’s weather forecast has some light rains in the eastern third/half of their growing areas tonight and tomorrow but still mainly dry for the rest of the week, weekend, and early next week. Moderate rainfall is still seen for the middle of next week.

Wire story reports since mid-January, speculators have come very close to dumping bullish bets in Chicago-traded corn futures and options, but the extent of that situation may not have been clear for market participants until Tuesday. Still corn open interest is going up daily.


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2019-02-13T13:44:44+00:00 February 13th, 2019|