Feb 12 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed to higher. SK is up 4 cents and near 9.23. CK is up 2 cents and near 3.83. WK is down 1 cent and near 5.19. US Dollar is lower. Crude and most commodities are higher. US stocks are higher.

Some positive news from US and China trade talks and a deal that could avoid another US partial government shutdown may be helping prices overnight. There is hope that China may agree to continue talks on intellectual properties and begin to buy as much as $40 billion dollars of US Ag and energy goods annually.

Fact CONAB dropped their estimate of 2109 soybean crop to 115.3 mmt vs USDA 117 and their previous estimate of 118.8 could be helping soybean prices. Last years crop was 119.3. CONAB estimated their 2019 corn crop near 91.7 mmt vs 80.7 last year.

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 10% behind a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting an 11% increase on the year, Corn 47% ahead with the USDA up 1% for the season and Soybeans 37% behind  with the USDA having a 12% decline forecasted on the year. US PNW corn basis jumped on Midwest weather logistics problems and increase loading to Asia. Barge freight also higher on river logistics problems.

Brazil’s weather forecast has no major changes as moderate rainfall is seen for all of the growing areas over the next 5 days with up to 90% coverage. The 6 to 10 day forecast also calls for moderate rainfall in most of the growing regions.

Argentina’s weather forecast has things turning mainly dry for the rest of the week, weekend, and the early part of next week. Moderate rainfall is now starting to show up for the middle part of next week.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-02-12T13:14:15+00:00 February 12th, 2019|