Feb 8 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

USDA report today (finally). Grains are mixed to higher. SH is up 1 cent and near 9.14. CH is up 1 cent and near 3.78. WH is up 2 cents and near 5.15. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. US stocks are lower.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 9 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 14 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 11 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 2.

A bit of normalcy? could be restored in the agriculture market today as monthly U.S. government reports will resume after being on hiatus since December. USDA will publish its monthly supply and demand outlook today at noon EST (1700 GMT), which will include postponed reports from January; final U.S. 2018 corn and soybean production, U.S. 2019 winter wheat plantings, and Dec. 1, 2018 grain stocks.

The numbers could be overshadowed by the ongoing trade war between the United States and China that has taken center stage in both commodity and equity markets. Markets were not pleased to find out on Thursday that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping would not meet in person as was expected prior to the U.S.-imposed March 1 deadline. Without a deal, the United States will increase tariffs on Chinese goods.

Brazil’s weather forecast has good rains for all of Brazil’s growing areas both in the 1 to 5 day and 6 to 10 day outlooks. Argentina’s weather forecast after a mostly dry weekend is for a front to bring rains to most areas later Sunday and into Monday except for the far southern regions of the growing areas. Things then turn dry for the rest of next week.

March corn is near 3.78. Trade above 3.79 could suggest a test of 3.81 then 3.85. Trade below 3.75 could suggest a test of 3.70. March soybean is near 9.14. Trade above 9.27 could suggest a test of 9.47. Trade below 9.09 could suggest a test of 8.90. March wheat is near 5.15. Trade below 5.12 could suggest a test of 5.00. Trade back above 5.19 could suggest a test of 5.30.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-02-08T13:34:01+00:00 February 8th, 2019|