Jan 11 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

US government is still in partial shutdown. Still no key USDA data. No USDA crop report today. Grains are higher. SH is up 3 cents and near 9.10. CH is up 2 cents and near 3.78. WH is up 5 cents and near 5.19. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower. Metals are higher. 30 year bonds are higher and off yesterdays lows.

CME lowers Margins for Soybean, Corn Futures; rates will be effective after the close of business on January.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will “most likely” visit Washington later in January for trade talks. I would expect the government shutdown would have no impact, Mnuchin said. We will continue with those meetings just as we sent a delegation to China.

High waters in the Mississippi and Ohio rivers are slowing the movement of grain barges to the U.S. Gulf export hub, grain traders said, adding another headache to a sector struggling with rising soy stockpiles and slowed exports due to a trade row with China.

China will produce 257.33 million tons of corn in the 2018/19 crop year, the agriculture ministry said, up 20 percent from last month’s forecast of 215.04 million tons. The higher outlook was based on China’s most recent agriculture census. The ministry also raised its forecast for corn consumption in the year that began in October to 285.28 million tons, up by 34.48 million tons from its previous estimate.

Brazilian agricultural consultancy Agroconsult slashed its forecast for Brazil’s 2018/2019 soybean crop by 5.2 mmt on Thursday, citing a dry spell that has hurt soy fields. Brazilian soy farmers are now expected to produce 117.6 mmt of the oilseeds this season, down from 122.8 in a prior forecast. Brazil produced 119.3 mmt of soybeans in the previous crop

Brazil’s weather forecast sees rainfall over the next 5 days falling in southern Brazil on north into the western sections of the growing areas. Limited rainfall continues in the northeast quadrant. Tthe 6-10 day forecast changed again and now most areas are to see close to average rainfall including the northeast.

Argentina’s weather forecast has rains continuing in the far northern regions into the weekend with things dry elsewhere. Another round of rains are seen early next week but, the 6 to 10 day forecast has changed and sees fairly dry weather to occur in most areas.

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2019-01-11T13:13:07+00:00 January 11th, 2019|