Jan 10 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed to lower. SH is down 1 cent and near 9.22. CH is unchanged and near 3.82. Uncertainty over outcome of US and China trade talks and less than perfect South America weather keeps trade volatile. Noon maps yesterday added some showers for parts of the dry areas of Brazil. WH is down 1 cent and near 5.18. Fact Egypt bought only Russia wheat in the tender may be offering resistance to wheat today. US government is still in partial shutdown. Still no key USDA data. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher.

No USDA export sales data today. The last weekly of data before the shutdown, US sold 78 mil bu of corn, 104 mil bu of soybean and 11 mil bu of wheat. Last year over the same 3 weeks, US sold 70 mil bu of corn, 77 mil bu of soybeans and only 23 mil bu of wheat. Some feel that this year over the last 3 weeks, US may have sold 150 mil bu of corn, 130 mil bu of soybean and 30 mil bu of wheat.

Brazil’s weather forecast sees decent rainfall for the southern growing regions on up to the northwest over the near term. The northeast quadrant remains with limited rains. The 6 to 10 day forecast has changed to now limited rains for central Brazil with average rains in the south and up into the farther northwest.

Brazilian crop agency Conab cut its forecast for the 2018-2019 soybean harvest, predicting the crop will fall short of a record for the first time in seven years, as hot, dry weather in some regions hurt plant development. Brazilian farmers will produce 118.8 million metric tons of soybeans in the season, for which planting is almost finished, Conab said; that compares with its forecast in December for a crop of 120.1 million tons and to the harvest of 119.3 million tons in the 2017-2018 season.

Conab est Brazil will grow a crop of 91.2 million metric tons of corn in the 2018-2019 season, up from 80.8 million tons in the previous season and compared with December’s forecast 91.1 million tons.

Ag Rural cut Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean crop forecast to 116.9 million tons on Wednesday from 121.4 million tons late in November, blaming extreme heat and a dry spell in southern areas for the smaller projection.

Argentina’s weather forecast does not quit with the call for ample rains today in most areas continuing into the weekend in the north. The 6-10 day continues with decent rains for the growing regions.

Ukraine’s grain exports have risen to 24.1 million tons so far in the 2018/19 season, as of Jan. 9, from 21.2 million tons at the same time in the previous season, the agriculture ministry said. The ministry said exports could rise to 47.2 million tons in the July 2018 to June 2019 season from 39.4 million the season before. The ministry said Ukraine had already exported almost 10 million tons of corn compared with 6 million tons in the same period last season, while wheat shipments fell to 10.6 million tons from around 11.3 million.

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2019-01-10T13:43:35+00:00 January 10th, 2019|