Dec 4 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

US stock market will be closed Wednesday in observance of the Funeral of former President G.H.W Bush. CBOT grains will be open.

Grains are mixed to lower. SF is unchanged and near 9.06. CH is down 1 cent and near 3.80. WH is down 3 cents and near 5.17. US stock are lower. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower.

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 17% behind a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting a 14% increase on the year, Corn 80% ahead (up 1% for the season) and soybeans 42% behind (an 11% decline forecasted)

USDA says 5.49 million tons of U.S. soybeans crushed on October—-Trade estimate was for a crush of 5.488 mln tons—–or, 183 mil bu vs 169 mil in September and 176 mil bu a year ago

China will probably resume buying American soybeans around Jan. 1 because of limited supplies in Brazil after slashing imports from the United States due to the U.S.-China trade war, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Monday.

China will need to drop its steep tariffs imposed on a range of American farm products earlier this year before it can fulfil its pledge to buy a “very substantial” amount of U.S. goods, said Chinese traders.

Brazilian soybean farmers anticipate a drop in prices if China lifts tariffs on U.S. soy in March, when new trade terms between the world’s two largest economies may be disclosed and South American nations will be collecting another bumper crop; if China’s 25 percent tariff on soy were to be lifted in March, U.S. soybeans could flood the market just as Brazil and Argentina are harvesting their crops.

Brazil’s weather forecast had no major changes with close to average rainfall in the north over the next week to ten days with little in the way of rainfall in the rest of the growing regions. The drier weather in the south could begin to lead to some moisture deficits especially if rains do not fall by the second half of next week.

Argentina’s weather forecast had no major changes as limited rainfall is seen into Monday of next week. A front then looks to move in and bring light to moderate rainfall to most areas by the middle of next week.

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2018-12-04T14:23:51+00:00 December 4th, 2018|