Nov 8 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

USDA report day. Quiet before the storm. Grains are mixed to higher. SF is up 3 cents and near 8.82.  CZ is up 1 cent and near 3.74. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.12. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Copper is lower.

All grain trading eyes will be in USDA report today. USDA could lower US corn crop and carryout. Overnight, China data suggest their 2017 corn crop may have been 45 mmt higher than previous estimate. 2007 through 2016 crops may have also been higher. Doubt if USDA will have time to adjust their data today. From 2007 to 2017 China soybean crops were also a little lower that previous data. USDA could also lower World wheat crop and carryout. USDA could also lower China soybean imports and raise World carryout.

Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 300-600 mt vs 582 last week, corn 600-900 vs 394 last week and soybeans 200-450 vs 396 last week.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has no major changes. Snows will fall in the central and north tonight and tomorrow otherwise, things will be cold and dry. May see some moderate rains for the southeast Midwest early next week. Temps will be running below average.

Brazil weather continues to see hit and miss rains in the north with dry weather elsewhere over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day forecast has soaking rains for most areas with coverage around 85%. Argentine weather is dry for the rest of the week until a strong system brings moderate to some heavy rains to the growing regions over the weekend and early next week. Dry weather returns the second half of next week.

The new Democrat majority in the U.S. House of Representatives is likely to back President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and could even egg him on, but will offer tougher scrutiny of his negotiations with allies, trade experts and lawmakers say.

US Wheat farmers waste little time calling on Congress to push the mammoth Farm Bill through in the lame duck session, warning that any delay exacerbates farmers’ already precarious position, trying to plan for next spring without certainty around government crop insurance and conservation programs.

Russia has harvested 114.2 million tons of grain before drying and cleaning with an average yield of 2.6 tons per hectare from 97.7 percent of the harvesting area as of Nov. 6. It had harvested 135.2 million tons with an average yield of 2.99 tons on the same date last year. Russia’s agriculture ministry kept its grain export forecast for 2018/19 at 38-39 million tons, including 34-35 million tons of wheat. Farmers have also sown winter grains for the next year’s crop on 102.1 percent of the originally planned area, or on 17.6 million hectares, compared with 16.7 million hectares on the same date a year ago; Russian farmers had initially planned to sow winter grains on 17.2 million hectares.

 

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2018-11-08T13:23:41+00:00 November 8th, 2018|