Oct 18 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed to lower. SX is down 7 cents and near 8.78. CZ is down 1 cent and near 3.73. WZ is up 1 cent and near 5.19. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US stocks are lower.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Wednesday trade negotiations with China appear to have taken a brief pause, and he damped expectations that the countries would make substantial progress toward an agreement at an upcoming G20 meeting.

US weekly export sales are est near 800-1,300 mt corn, 600-1.000 mt soybeans and 300-600 mt wheat.

US farmer should add to 10 pct old crop corn sales. CZ support is near 3.69. Resistance 3.80. Support is from solid demand for US corn and low USDA US and World stocks forecast.  US farmer could increase 2019 acres. This offers resistance. SX support is 870. Resistance 8.90. SX remains is a broad trading range between 8.20 and 9.00. Key is to price direction is US China trade relations. WZ support is near 5.05. Resistance 5.30. Slow increase demand for US wheat exports and talk of higher 2019 World wheat productions offers resistance to prices. Talk of lower World 2018 supplies offers support.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast is dry today; light rains are to work through most of the region tomorrow; the weekend and most of next week is dry; the following weekend, rains look to be possible in the west. Temps continue to be running below average for the near to mid-term.

Brazil weather still has a soaking rain pattern in most areas over the near to mid-term with coverage around 85%. Argentine weather has a front bringing light to moderate rains over the next two days with 75% coverage favoring the west; moderate rainfall is then seen late in the weekend and early next week to most areas with only Buenos Aires and Entre Rios missing the bulk of the rains.

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2018-10-18T13:17:40+00:00 October 18th, 2018|