Oct 11 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

USDA report day. Grains are lower. SX is down 4 cents and near 8.48. CZ is down 1 cent and near 3.61. WZ is down 1 cent and near 5.09. Macro meltdown continues. US stocks, US Dollar and Crude are lower.

Average trade guess for US 2018 corn crop is 14,872 mil bu vs USDA 14,827. Soybean crop is estimated near 4,733 vs USDA 4,693. US Average trade guess for US 2018/19 corn carryout is 1,919 mil bu vs USDA 1,774. Soybeans are est near 898 vs 845. Wheat is estimated near 950 vs 935.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has improving weather harvest for the Northwest with things fairly quiet over Iowa and Minnesota for much of the next week to ten days; light to moderate rains are seen for the rest of the region over the weekend and into Monday; next week looks fairly quiet in all areas. Temps are seen running below average the next 5 days then warm to average by the second half of next week.

Brazil had no major changes with close to average rainfall in most areas over the next 5 days and in the 6 to 10 day period; coverage around 75% in both time frames. Argentina had no major changes as it looks quiet in Buenos Aires and La Pampa over the next 5 days with light rains falling elsewhere. Next week has light to moderate rains to fall with coverage around 85%.

A new outbreak of African swine fever has been detected in China’s northeastern Liaoning province, the agriculture ministry said and the province’s third case this week.

Brazil is on track to export a record $100 billion worth of agricultural products this year as demand for staple commodities like beef and soybeans from the South American country remain strong. The amount represents a 4.2 percent rise from last year and is slightly higher than the previous record of $99.97 billion in 2013.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2018-10-11T12:01:48+00:00 October 11th, 2018|