Oct 10 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed to lower. SX is down 2 cents and near 8.60. CZ is unchanged and near 3.64. WZ is down 2 cents and near 5.12. Better US weather forecast may be offering resistance. Talk of a negative USDA report this week could also be offering resistance near key prices. US Dollar and Crude are mixed to lower.

Average trade guess for US 2018 corn crop is 14,872 mil bu vs USDA 14,827. Soybean crop is estimated near 4,733 vs USDA 4,693. US Average trade guess for US 2018/19 corn carryout is 1,919 mil bu vs USDA 1,774. Soybeans are est near 898 vs 845. Wheat is estimated near 950 vs 935.

The U.S. corn harvest was 34% complete versus 26% last week (26% average) and trade estimates of 34%.

The U.S. soybean harvest was 32% complete versus 23% last week (36% average) and trade est of 35%.

Yesterday’s weekly export inspections had U.S. wheat exports running 29% behind a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting a 14% increase, corn 62% ahead (down 1%), and soybeans 35% behind (a 3% decline forecasted).

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has improving weather for the Northwest; most areas will be dry over the few days before light to moderate rains fall in the southern Midwest later Friday and into Monday; the rest of next week looks to be fairly quiet. Temps look to be trending towards below average in all areas.

Brazil continues to see close to average rainfall in most areas over the next 5 days and in the 6 to 10 day period; coverage around 75% in both time frames. Argentina looks quiet in Buenos Aires and La Pampa over the next 5 days with light rains falling elsewhere; next week has light to moderate rains to fall with coverage around 85%.

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2018-10-10T12:08:51+00:00 October 10th, 2018|