Aug 9 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed to lower. SX is down 3 cents and near 9.07. CZ is up 1 cent and near 3.85. WZ is down 6 cents and near 5.63. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Copper is higher.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had models change again and now see rains for much of the region next week. Temps run average to above. The 11 to 16 day forecast has models now more in line and have close to average rains in the Midwest with temps average to a bit above. West Europe could see needed rains.

Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-500 mt. old corp corn 300-600 mt, new crop 400-900 mt and old crop soybeans 100-400 mt and new crop 300-600 mt.

Trade est US 2018 corn crop near 14,411 mil bu vs USDA July est of 14,230. 2018 US soybean crop is est near 4,407 vs USDA July 4,310. US 2018/19 corn carryout is est near 1,636 vs USDA 1,552, soybeans 638 vs 580 and wheat 961 vs 985. Trade est World 2018/19 corn end stocks near 152.6 mmt vs 152.0 in July, soybeans 99.3 vs 98.3 and wheat 256.4 vs 260.9.

Wire story claims market analysts have been trying to gauge China’s forward bean usage as it remains locked in a tit-for-tat tariff dispute with the United States, and the conflict has prompted threats from the East Asian country to severely reduce or ban U.S. bean imports.

Analysts at Strategie Grains made another steep cut to their estimate for this year’s European Union soft wheat harvest, citing parched conditions in northern Europe that have led to “catastrophic” yields in Germany and Scandinavia; in a report published on Thursday, the French-based firm projected EU soft wheat production at 127.7 million tons, compared with 132.4 million estimated a month ago and just under the 130 million it forecast in a late-July update; the latest crop estimate put production down 10 percent compared with last year’s volume.

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2018-08-09T12:06:16+00:00 August 9th, 2018|