May 23 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are lower. SN is down 2 cents and near 10.28. CN is down 1 cent and near 4.04. WN is down 3 cents and near 5.17. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Most commodities are lower. US stocks are lower.

Wires reporting China’s state grain Sinograin has been enquiring about the prices of soybeans from the United States this week, two traders with knowledge of the matter said, a sign Beijing may resume purchases as trade tensions ease. There are unconfirmed rumors China may buy as much as 10 mmt of US soybeans under the new trade deal. Key is over what period of time.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has light to moderate rains for most of Iowa, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin for the second half of the week and weekend; those move into the rest of the Midwest Saturday and Sunday; early next week is quiet before another system comes through the second half of the week bringing close to average results—–temps will be running average to above average.

The U.S. Northern Plains has light hit and miss rains for the rest of the week; moderate rains are not seen until the second half of next week—-above average temps are seen for the near term.

The U.S. Southern Plains weather forecast has an increase in coverage for the region but, a slight drop in amounts over the next 2 to 3 days; light rains may not return until the second half of next week—-temps will be running average to above average.

A protest by truck owners in Brazil against high diesel prices is hampering transport of feed and animals in the meat processing sector, ABPA, an association of poultry and pork processors, said; ABPA said the truckers protests have impacted delivery of cargoes to local and export markets, adding that there are reports of some processing plants reducing working shifts due to lack of inputs.

Argentine grains ports will be paralyzed by a 24-hour strike on Thursday to demand better working conditions and protest against government talks with the International Monetary Fund; the government, reeling from a 15 percent swoon in the local peso currency this month, has asked the IMF for a standby finance agreement that the opposition fears will include onerous fiscal belt-tightening conditions.

Russia and Ukraine may face slightly lower grain crop than last year’s record production due to dry weather in some of their regions; Russia harvested a record grain crop of 135 million tons in 2017 and a large crop of 61 million tons came from Ukraine; rains seen in Russia in the last two weeks significantly eased risks of drought, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said, adding that the level of moisture in soil is still relatively low in some regions; it currently expects Russia’s 2018 grain crop at 126 million tons in 2018; another consultancy, IKAR sees it at 120 million tons; the Agriculture Ministry is currently standing by a conservative forecast for 2018 grain crop of 110 million ton Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry said it kept its forecast for grain crop unchanged at 61 million tons with grain yield expected at 4.4 tons per hectare, 4 percent above last year’s level.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2018-05-23T12:05:31+00:00 May 23rd, 2018|