Afternoon Grain Commentary 2018-08-29T18:26:48+00:00

Morning 

Commentary

Daily 

Video

Afternoon 

Commentary

Special 

Reports

Livestock 

Commentary

Newsletter

Archive

Market News and Updates

Morning Commentary

Daily Video

Afternoon Commentary

Special Reports

Livestock Commentary

Newsletter Archive

September 18 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

The soy complex has struggled today in contrast to strong corn and wheat markets. November soybeans are trading at 889 ½, down 4 ¼ cents late in the session with December soybean meal at $295.50, down $2.20 and December soybean oil is slightly higher at 30.08. The soybean meal market continues to be a drag on the complex after news this morning that South Korea confirmed their second case of African swine fever. South Korea is Asia’s fourth largest pork consumer with a live hog inventory near 12.0 million according to the USDA. The government raised its warning to the highest level and put a 48 hour lockdown on all farm across the country. Thailand has culled more than 200 pigs this week amid heightened fears of a potential outbreak of African swine fever. Neighboring countries Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia have all confirmed cases of the deadly disease.

There were no flash announcements of soybean sales to China this morning leaving the running total at 720,000 tonnes confirmed since last week. The Chinese Vice-Minister will arrive in Washington today and begin laying the framework for the negotiations prior to the higher level meetings that will commence early next month. Traders are looking for Thursday’s export sales for soybeans to come in near 700,000 to 1.2 million tonnes with soybean meal at 125,000 to 250,000 tonnes and soybean oil at 5,000 to 20,000 tonnes. The open interest in soybeans went down 6,182 contracts on Tuesday with soybean meal up 2,957 contracts and soybean oil down 3,765 contracts.

Soybean Futures Market

CORN

December corn put in a low for the week so far at 365 ¾ early in today’s session and has pushed higher trading at 371, up 3 cents heading into the close. The market dismissed the slightly negative ethanol production report for the week ending September 13th which averaged 1.003 million barrels per day. This is down 1.96% vs. last week and down 4.57% vs. last year. Total ethanol production for the week was 7.021 million barrels. Corn used in last week’s production is estimated at 100.49 million bushels. This crop year’s cumulative corn used for ethanol production for this crop year is 188.1 million bushels. Corn use needs to average 105.137 million bushels per week to meet this crop year’s USDA estimate of 5.475 billion bushels. Stocks as of September 13 were 23.238 million barrels. This is up 3.28% vs. last week and up 2.16% vs. last year.

The market is being supported by strong calendar spreads with the December/March spread trading into -11 ¼ cents, the narrowest since August 30th and the December/July spread is trading at -25 ½ cents, up 1 ½ cents on the day. The US farmers still think the USDA yield projections are very optimistic and will likely hold off harvest time sales until prices recover. Producers have increased on-farm storage capacity every year since 2004 with total on-farm storage at 13.5 billion bushels as of 2018. With record amounts of unplanted acres this year, there will be plenty of storage available for unsold corn. Traders are looking for export sales to come in near 850,000 to 1.5 million tonnes on Thursday. Recall, last week Mexico booked 1.042 million tonnes of corn. The open interest in corn went up 11,180 contracts on Tuesday.

Corn Futures Market

WHEAT

Wheat markets pushed higher today with Chicago December wheat trading at 490 ¼ up 6 cents and Kansas City December trading at 409 ¾ up 7 ½ cents heading into the close. The market was supported by strong calendar spreads as well as a flurry of export business. Egypt bought 180,000 tonnes of wheat all from Russia at an average price of $211.00 per tonne CNF for October 21-31 shipment. There were no confirmed purchases for the second shipment period of November 1-10. This would seem to be less than what traders had estimated. Other export business this week includes Algeria buying 600,000 tonnes of wheat for November shipment and Ethiopia tendering for 400,000 tonnes of wheat. Tunisia is also seeking 42,000 tonnes of wheat and 50,000 tonnes of barley. Traders are looking for Thursday’s wheat export sales to come in near 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes. The open interest in Chicago went down 1,051 contracts on Tuesday with Kansas City down 3,369 contracts.

Wheat Futures Market

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

September 18th, 2019|
Load More Posts

Related Posts

September 18 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

The soy complex has struggled today in contrast to strong corn and wheat markets. November soybeans are trading at 889 ½, down 4 ¼ cents late in the session with December soybean meal at $295.50, down $2.20 and December soybean oil is slightly higher at 30.08. The soybean meal market continues to be a drag on the complex after news this morning that South Korea confirmed their second case of African swine fever. South Korea is Asia’s fourth largest pork consumer with a live hog inventory near 12.0 million according to the USDA. The government raised its warning to the highest level and put a 48 hour lockdown on all farm across the country. Thailand has culled more than 200 pigs this week amid heightened fears of a potential outbreak of African swine fever. Neighboring countries Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia have all confirmed cases of the deadly disease.

There were no flash announcements of soybean sales to China this morning leaving the running total at 720,000 tonnes confirmed since last week. The Chinese Vice-Minister will arrive in Washington today and begin laying the framework for the negotiations prior to the higher level meetings that will commence early next month. Traders are looking for Thursday’s export sales for soybeans to come in near 700,000 to 1.2 million tonnes with soybean meal at 125,000 to 250,000 tonnes and soybean oil at 5,000 to 20,000 tonnes. The open interest in soybeans went down 6,182 contracts on Tuesday with soybean meal up 2,957 contracts and soybean oil down 3,765 contracts.

Soybean Futures Market

CORN

December corn put in a low for the week so far at 365 ¾ early in today’s session and has pushed higher trading at 371, up 3 cents heading into the close. The market dismissed the slightly negative ethanol production report for the week ending September 13th which averaged 1.003 million barrels per day. This is down 1.96% vs. last week and down 4.57% vs. last year. Total ethanol production for the week was 7.021 million barrels. Corn used in last week’s production is estimated at 100.49 million bushels. This crop year’s cumulative corn used for ethanol production for this crop year is 188.1 million bushels. Corn use needs to average 105.137 million bushels per week to meet this crop year’s USDA estimate of 5.475 billion bushels. Stocks as of September 13 were 23.238 million barrels. This is up 3.28% vs. last week and up 2.16% vs. last year.

The market is being supported by strong calendar spreads with the December/March spread trading into -11 ¼ cents, the narrowest since August 30th and the December/July spread is trading at -25 ½ cents, up 1 ½ cents on the day. The US farmers still think the USDA yield projections are very optimistic and will likely hold off harvest time sales until prices recover. Producers have increased on-farm storage capacity every year since 2004 with total on-farm storage at 13.5 billion bushels as of 2018. With record amounts of unplanted acres this year, there will be plenty of storage available for unsold corn. Traders are looking for export sales to come in near 850,000 to 1.5 million tonnes on Thursday. Recall, last week Mexico booked 1.042 million tonnes of corn. The open interest in corn went up 11,180 contracts on Tuesday.

Corn Futures Market

WHEAT

Wheat markets pushed higher today with Chicago December wheat trading at 490 ¼ up 6 cents and Kansas City December trading at 409 ¾ up 7 ½ cents heading into the close. The market was supported by strong calendar spreads as well as a flurry of export business. Egypt bought 180,000 tonnes of wheat all from Russia at an average price of $211.00 per tonne CNF for October 21-31 shipment. There were no confirmed purchases for the second shipment period of November 1-10. This would seem to be less than what traders had estimated. Other export business this week includes Algeria buying 600,000 tonnes of wheat for November shipment and Ethiopia tendering for 400,000 tonnes of wheat. Tunisia is also seeking 42,000 tonnes of wheat and 50,000 tonnes of barley. Traders are looking for Thursday’s wheat export sales to come in near 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes. The open interest in Chicago went down 1,051 contracts on Tuesday with Kansas City down 3,369 contracts.

Wheat Futures Market

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

September 18th, 2019|
Load More Posts