Afternoon Grain Commentary 2018-08-29T18:26:48+00:00


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MARCH 21 AFTERNOON AG COMMENTARY

by Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

Soybean ended higher. Corn and wheat traded higher. Soycomplex followed. When does a market that sees fundamental glass half empty turn to half full?. Trade volume has dropped due to increase market volatility. Ukraine War added to rally in Crude which may have helped commodities. SK range on Friday was 16.51 to 16.89 ending near 16.68. Todays range was 16.66 to 17.10 and ended near 16.91. One of the biggest bulls in the market has turned bearish. Their weather guy now sees normal US Midwest and plains Weather. This and lack of new US soybean sales for last 4 days suggest 17.10 SK could be a key high. Weekly US soybean exports were near 20 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,569 vs 1,977 ly. USDA goal is 2,090 vs 2,261 last year. Informa will be out tomorrow with their estimate of US 2022 Soybean acres.They have been using 87.8 vs 87.2 last year.

CORN

Corn futures ended higher. Wheat traded higher. Corn may have followed. When does a market that sees fundamental glass half empty turn to half full? Trade volume has dropped due to increase market volatility. Ukraine War added to rally in Crude which may have helped commodities. CK range on Friday was 7.36 to 7.55 ending near 7.41. Todays range was 7.43 to 7.65 and ended near 7.56. One of the biggest bulls in the market has turned bearish. Their weather guy now sees normal US Midwest and plains weather. This and lack of new US corn sales for last 4 days suggest 7.80 CK could be a key high. Weekly US exports were near 57 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 1,078 mil bu vs 1,268 last year. USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 last year. Informa will be out tomorrow with their estimate of US 2022 corn acres. They have been using 91.5 vs 93.3 last year. USDA estimates US 2021/22 corn, soybean, wheat and sorghum exports near 5,700 mil bu vs last years record of 6,290. 2021 Sep-Dec exports were near 2,284 vs last years record of 2,746. Some could see final US 2021/22 exports closer to 6,110. Some feel US 2022/23 exports could be a record 6,485.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended higher but off session highs. Combination of the continued Ukraine war and disappointing weekend US south plains rains helped rally wheat futures. On Friday, WK range was 10.55 to 11.06. WK ended near 10.63. Today, WK range was 10.61 to 11.48 and ended near 11.19.  On Friday, KWK range was 10.55 to 10.97. KWK ended near 10.70. Today, WK range was 10.70 to 11.48 and ended near 11.13. One of the biggest bulls in the market has turned bearish. Their weather guy now sees normal US Midwest and plains weather. Weekly US wheat exports were 12 mil bu. Season to date exports are 608 vs 736 ly. USDA goal is 800 mil bu vs 992 ly. There remains concern how World wheat importers will replace 30 pct of World wheat trade. Informa will be out tomorrow with their estimate of US 2022 wheat acres. They have been using 48.1 vs 46.7 last year.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or it’s affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity future contracts.

March 21st, 2022|
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MARCH 21 AFTERNOON AG COMMENTARY

by Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

Soybean ended higher. Corn and wheat traded higher. Soycomplex followed. When does a market that sees fundamental glass half empty turn to half full?. Trade volume has dropped due to increase market volatility. Ukraine War added to rally in Crude which may have helped commodities. SK range on Friday was 16.51 to 16.89 ending near 16.68. Todays range was 16.66 to 17.10 and ended near 16.91. One of the biggest bulls in the market has turned bearish. Their weather guy now sees normal US Midwest and plains Weather. This and lack of new US soybean sales for last 4 days suggest 17.10 SK could be a key high. Weekly US soybean exports were near 20 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,569 vs 1,977 ly. USDA goal is 2,090 vs 2,261 last year. Informa will be out tomorrow with their estimate of US 2022 Soybean acres.They have been using 87.8 vs 87.2 last year.

CORN

Corn futures ended higher. Wheat traded higher. Corn may have followed. When does a market that sees fundamental glass half empty turn to half full? Trade volume has dropped due to increase market volatility. Ukraine War added to rally in Crude which may have helped commodities. CK range on Friday was 7.36 to 7.55 ending near 7.41. Todays range was 7.43 to 7.65 and ended near 7.56. One of the biggest bulls in the market has turned bearish. Their weather guy now sees normal US Midwest and plains weather. This and lack of new US corn sales for last 4 days suggest 7.80 CK could be a key high. Weekly US exports were near 57 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 1,078 mil bu vs 1,268 last year. USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 last year. Informa will be out tomorrow with their estimate of US 2022 corn acres. They have been using 91.5 vs 93.3 last year. USDA estimates US 2021/22 corn, soybean, wheat and sorghum exports near 5,700 mil bu vs last years record of 6,290. 2021 Sep-Dec exports were near 2,284 vs last years record of 2,746. Some could see final US 2021/22 exports closer to 6,110. Some feel US 2022/23 exports could be a record 6,485.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended higher but off session highs. Combination of the continued Ukraine war and disappointing weekend US south plains rains helped rally wheat futures. On Friday, WK range was 10.55 to 11.06. WK ended near 10.63. Today, WK range was 10.61 to 11.48 and ended near 11.19.  On Friday, KWK range was 10.55 to 10.97. KWK ended near 10.70. Today, WK range was 10.70 to 11.48 and ended near 11.13. One of the biggest bulls in the market has turned bearish. Their weather guy now sees normal US Midwest and plains weather. Weekly US wheat exports were 12 mil bu. Season to date exports are 608 vs 736 ly. USDA goal is 800 mil bu vs 992 ly. There remains concern how World wheat importers will replace 30 pct of World wheat trade. Informa will be out tomorrow with their estimate of US 2022 wheat acres. They have been using 48.1 vs 46.7 last year.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or it’s affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity future contracts.

March 21st, 2022|
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