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October 14 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans and wheat traded higher. Soymeal, soyoil and corn traded unchanged. US stocks were mixed. US Dollar was higher. Crude was lower. Gold was higher.

SOYBEANS

Soybean traded both sides of Fridays close. Over the weekend most wire services reported that there still needs to be more discussions between US and China before a deal can be signed. This morning, US Sec of Treasury said that he expected China to drop tariffs and buy US Ag products. Still no word on what Ag products they will buy and when. USDA is closed today for holiday. US soybean exports to date are near 154 mil bu vs 131 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 mil bu vs 1,748 last year. Demand bears could see final exports closer to 1,675. China August hog herd data showed hog numbers down 38 pct from last year. September China soybean imports were down 13 pct from the previous month. US soybean harvest is expected to be near 34 pct done versus 49 average. The crop rating could drop 1 pct to 52 pct good/ex from last week.

Soybean Futures Market

CORN

Corn futures traded unchanged. There remains a high level of uncertainty concerning the final US corn crop size and demand for US corn exports. USDA is closed today for holiday. US corn exports to date are near only 79 mil bu vs 232 last year. USDA goal is 1,900 mil bu vs 2,065 last year. Demand bears could see final exports closer to 1,815. Competition from cheaper South America and Ukraine supplies could continue to reduce demand for US corn. US corn harvest is expected to be near 23 pct done versus 36 average. The crop rating could drop 1 pct to 55 pct good/ex from last week. Interesting to note that USDA FSA estimated World 2019 hog numbers are down 12 pct. US is up 4 pct. China hog numbers are down 30 pct. 2019 World poultry production is up 14 pct. 2019 World beef production is down 3 pct. There was some spreading of buying soybean and selling corn. Some link that to concern US soybeans will be part of the trade deal but not corn.

Corn Futures Market

WHEAT

Chicago Dec wheat closed higher and near 5.10. Concern about US and Canada wheat quality and a firmer tone to Russia wheat prices may be helping prices. KC Dec is near 4.24. Minn Dec is near 5.52. Trade above the 200 day moving average may be helping trigger buying in Chicago wheat. This is the first time wheat futures have traded over than average since June. USDA is closed today for holiday. US wheat exports are near 327 mil but vs 271 last year. USDA goal is 950 mil bu. This is down 25 from their September guess and versus 936 last year. USDA numbers are not friendly wheat prices. USDA estimates total US supply at 3,161 mil bu vs 3,119 last year. Demand is estimated near 2,118 vs 2,039 last year. This leaves adequate end stocks of 1,043 vs 1,080 last year. World crop is near 765 mmt vs 730 last year. Demand is near 755 vs 736 last year. End stocks are also adequate at 287 mmt vs 277 last year.

Wheat Futures Market

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

October 14th, 2019|
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October 14 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans and wheat traded higher. Soymeal, soyoil and corn traded unchanged. US stocks were mixed. US Dollar was higher. Crude was lower. Gold was higher.

SOYBEANS

Soybean traded both sides of Fridays close. Over the weekend most wire services reported that there still needs to be more discussions between US and China before a deal can be signed. This morning, US Sec of Treasury said that he expected China to drop tariffs and buy US Ag products. Still no word on what Ag products they will buy and when. USDA is closed today for holiday. US soybean exports to date are near 154 mil bu vs 131 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 mil bu vs 1,748 last year. Demand bears could see final exports closer to 1,675. China August hog herd data showed hog numbers down 38 pct from last year. September China soybean imports were down 13 pct from the previous month. US soybean harvest is expected to be near 34 pct done versus 49 average. The crop rating could drop 1 pct to 52 pct good/ex from last week.

Soybean Futures Market

CORN

Corn futures traded unchanged. There remains a high level of uncertainty concerning the final US corn crop size and demand for US corn exports. USDA is closed today for holiday. US corn exports to date are near only 79 mil bu vs 232 last year. USDA goal is 1,900 mil bu vs 2,065 last year. Demand bears could see final exports closer to 1,815. Competition from cheaper South America and Ukraine supplies could continue to reduce demand for US corn. US corn harvest is expected to be near 23 pct done versus 36 average. The crop rating could drop 1 pct to 55 pct good/ex from last week. Interesting to note that USDA FSA estimated World 2019 hog numbers are down 12 pct. US is up 4 pct. China hog numbers are down 30 pct. 2019 World poultry production is up 14 pct. 2019 World beef production is down 3 pct. There was some spreading of buying soybean and selling corn. Some link that to concern US soybeans will be part of the trade deal but not corn.

Corn Futures Market

WHEAT

Chicago Dec wheat closed higher and near 5.10. Concern about US and Canada wheat quality and a firmer tone to Russia wheat prices may be helping prices. KC Dec is near 4.24. Minn Dec is near 5.52. Trade above the 200 day moving average may be helping trigger buying in Chicago wheat. This is the first time wheat futures have traded over than average since June. USDA is closed today for holiday. US wheat exports are near 327 mil but vs 271 last year. USDA goal is 950 mil bu. This is down 25 from their September guess and versus 936 last year. USDA numbers are not friendly wheat prices. USDA estimates total US supply at 3,161 mil bu vs 3,119 last year. Demand is estimated near 2,118 vs 2,039 last year. This leaves adequate end stocks of 1,043 vs 1,080 last year. World crop is near 765 mmt vs 730 last year. Demand is near 755 vs 736 last year. End stocks are also adequate at 287 mmt vs 277 last year.

Wheat Futures Market

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

October 14th, 2019|
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