Afternoon Grain Commentary 2018-08-29T18:26:48+00:00

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June 14 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

Soybeans closed higher. Wet US weather has helped soybean futures rally. Sep Soybean futures has now rallied from May 13 after the bearish USDA report and near 8.03 to today’s high near 9.09. This week, USDA raised US 2018/19 soybean carryout 75 mil bu. This due to a drop in exports. USDA also left the 2019 crop near 4,150 mil bu and total 2019/20 demand near 4,195 mil bu vs 3,929 this year. This leaves a carryout near 1,045 mil bu. US soybean planting could be near 80-83 pct done. Some feel that full season soybean planted after June 25 may yield only as good as double crop. Also this week, one agronomist suggested the late planted US crop may yield only 45 bushels per acre versus USDA estimate of 49.5. USDA estimated Brazil 2019 soybean crop near 117.0 mmt vs 122.0 last year. Exports are est near 78.5 vs 76.2 last year. USDA estimate Brazil 2020 crop near 123.0 and exports near 75.0. They estimate 2019 China soybean imports near 85.0 versus 94.1 last year and 2020 near 87.0.

Soybean Futures Chart

CORN

Corn futures traded higher. Talk that US 2019 corn crop may fall due to the wet spring continues to bring in new managed fund longs. September corn futures made new contract highs this week and has now rallied from the May 13 contract low near 3.52 to todays contract high near 4.60. Some feel that if US 2019 acres drop 8.0 million and final yield is as low as USDA 166.0 September corn futures could test 5.00. Key then will be July US weather. This week USDA dropped US corn planted acres to near 89.8 versus 92.8. The real shocker to the market was that USDA lowered US corn yield from 176 to 166. This based on weather models not official NASS objective yield data or farmer survey. USDA dropped old and new crop US export outlook a total of 225 mil bu and feed use 300 mil bu which now suggest a US carryout near 1,675 mil bu vs their May est of 2,485. On Monday, most look for USDA to estimate US corn planting pace near 89-91 pct. USDA still asking farmers percent of intended acres planted. USDA said they do not know how many acres will be in prevent plant but may stop asking once 94-95 pct of the crop is planted.

Corn Futures Chart

WHEAT

Wheat futures closed mixed. Chicago September closed near 5.42 and has now rallied 115 cents from the May 13 contract low near 4.27. KC September futures settled near 4.88 and has rallied 96 cents from the May low. Minn September wheat settled near 5.70. This below Thursday low but has rallied 55 cents from the May low. Chicago wheat is following corn on concern wet US weather could lower crop quality. Early SRW harvest yields in ARK are better than expected. Early HRW harvest yield in OK and TX are also better than expected. This week USDA estimated the US 2019 wheat crop near 1,903 mil bu. Total demand is estimated near 2,073 mil bu vs 2,022 last year. This leaves a carryout near 1,072 mil bu vs 1,102 last year. USDA also raised World wheat carryout to a new record 294.3 mmt. Some est Russia 2019/20 wheat crop near 81.5 mmt vs USDA 78.0 and exports near 40.5 vs USDA 37.0 and 36.0 last year.

Wheat Futures Chart

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

June 14th, 2019|
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June 14 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

Soybeans closed higher. Wet US weather has helped soybean futures rally. Sep Soybean futures has now rallied from May 13 after the bearish USDA report and near 8.03 to today’s high near 9.09. This week, USDA raised US 2018/19 soybean carryout 75 mil bu. This due to a drop in exports. USDA also left the 2019 crop near 4,150 mil bu and total 2019/20 demand near 4,195 mil bu vs 3,929 this year. This leaves a carryout near 1,045 mil bu. US soybean planting could be near 80-83 pct done. Some feel that full season soybean planted after June 25 may yield only as good as double crop. Also this week, one agronomist suggested the late planted US crop may yield only 45 bushels per acre versus USDA estimate of 49.5. USDA estimated Brazil 2019 soybean crop near 117.0 mmt vs 122.0 last year. Exports are est near 78.5 vs 76.2 last year. USDA estimate Brazil 2020 crop near 123.0 and exports near 75.0. They estimate 2019 China soybean imports near 85.0 versus 94.1 last year and 2020 near 87.0.

Soybean Futures Chart

CORN

Corn futures traded higher. Talk that US 2019 corn crop may fall due to the wet spring continues to bring in new managed fund longs. September corn futures made new contract highs this week and has now rallied from the May 13 contract low near 3.52 to todays contract high near 4.60. Some feel that if US 2019 acres drop 8.0 million and final yield is as low as USDA 166.0 September corn futures could test 5.00. Key then will be July US weather. This week USDA dropped US corn planted acres to near 89.8 versus 92.8. The real shocker to the market was that USDA lowered US corn yield from 176 to 166. This based on weather models not official NASS objective yield data or farmer survey. USDA dropped old and new crop US export outlook a total of 225 mil bu and feed use 300 mil bu which now suggest a US carryout near 1,675 mil bu vs their May est of 2,485. On Monday, most look for USDA to estimate US corn planting pace near 89-91 pct. USDA still asking farmers percent of intended acres planted. USDA said they do not know how many acres will be in prevent plant but may stop asking once 94-95 pct of the crop is planted.

Corn Futures Chart

WHEAT

Wheat futures closed mixed. Chicago September closed near 5.42 and has now rallied 115 cents from the May 13 contract low near 4.27. KC September futures settled near 4.88 and has rallied 96 cents from the May low. Minn September wheat settled near 5.70. This below Thursday low but has rallied 55 cents from the May low. Chicago wheat is following corn on concern wet US weather could lower crop quality. Early SRW harvest yields in ARK are better than expected. Early HRW harvest yield in OK and TX are also better than expected. This week USDA estimated the US 2019 wheat crop near 1,903 mil bu. Total demand is estimated near 2,073 mil bu vs 2,022 last year. This leaves a carryout near 1,072 mil bu vs 1,102 last year. USDA also raised World wheat carryout to a new record 294.3 mmt. Some est Russia 2019/20 wheat crop near 81.5 mmt vs USDA 78.0 and exports near 40.5 vs USDA 37.0 and 36.0 last year.

Wheat Futures Chart

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

June 14th, 2019|
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