Afternoon Grain Commentary 2018-08-29T18:26:48+00:00

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Feb 15 Afternoon Commentary

by Steve Freed,

SOYBEANS

Soybeans are trying to bounce of Thursdays lows. Positive comments after the US and China trade talks in china could be helping US stocks and a little soybean prices. Trade is also trying to look past the cancellations of US open soybean sales this week. US Jan soybean crush was a record 171.6 mil bu vs 163.1 last year and 169.5 expected. NOPA Jan soyoil stocks were near 1,549 mil lbs vs and 1,728 last year. May soybean futures held key moving average support near todays lows at 9/25. Next support could be closer to 9.00. Initial resistance is now near 9.25 then 9.40. Most of the markets are waiting for new news on China trade deal.

May Daily Soybeans Chart

CORN 

Corn futures traded unchanged. Market may have found support following Thursday losses on optimism over the trend of US and China trade talks. There is no deal yet but negotiators said they were closer. The two meet again next week in Washington. Open interest keeps going up and could suggest some end user buying may have occurred on recent lower prices. US cold Midwest winter weather could be slowing cash movement. This could also be supporting prices. Resistance over the market could be due to fact US farmers have unsold 2018 inventory to sell and March is a time they tend to need cash for the next crop. There could also be some overhead resistance from talk South America and Black Sea 2019 corn production could increase from last year. Next week, USDA will hold their Annual Outlook conference. Trade will be looking for estimates of US 2019/20 supply and demand, outlook for long term global corn trade and US 2019 net farm income.

May Daily Corn Chart

WHEAT

Wheat prices traded lower. This week wheat prices have trended lower on weaker Russia wheat export prices. March KC wheat futures made new contract lows. Some feel the HRW supply and demand is heavy. Some could see US 2018/19 all wheat carryout closer to 1,080 mil bu versus USDA 1,010. This due to lower exports. At the same time some feel US 2019 all wheat crop could be near 1,970 mil bu vs 1,884 this year. This could suggest US 2019/20 Wheat carryout could remain near 1,080. Some feel US 2018/19 HRW carryout could be near 520 versus USDA 490. Despite lower 2019 acres 2019 HRW crop could be near 730 vs 660 this year.

May Chicago Wheat Daily Chart

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

February 15th, 2019|
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Feb 15 Afternoon Commentary

by Steve Freed,

SOYBEANS

Soybeans are trying to bounce of Thursdays lows. Positive comments after the US and China trade talks in china could be helping US stocks and a little soybean prices. Trade is also trying to look past the cancellations of US open soybean sales this week. US Jan soybean crush was a record 171.6 mil bu vs 163.1 last year and 169.5 expected. NOPA Jan soyoil stocks were near 1,549 mil lbs vs and 1,728 last year. May soybean futures held key moving average support near todays lows at 9/25. Next support could be closer to 9.00. Initial resistance is now near 9.25 then 9.40. Most of the markets are waiting for new news on China trade deal.

May Daily Soybeans Chart

CORN 

Corn futures traded unchanged. Market may have found support following Thursday losses on optimism over the trend of US and China trade talks. There is no deal yet but negotiators said they were closer. The two meet again next week in Washington. Open interest keeps going up and could suggest some end user buying may have occurred on recent lower prices. US cold Midwest winter weather could be slowing cash movement. This could also be supporting prices. Resistance over the market could be due to fact US farmers have unsold 2018 inventory to sell and March is a time they tend to need cash for the next crop. There could also be some overhead resistance from talk South America and Black Sea 2019 corn production could increase from last year. Next week, USDA will hold their Annual Outlook conference. Trade will be looking for estimates of US 2019/20 supply and demand, outlook for long term global corn trade and US 2019 net farm income.

May Daily Corn Chart

WHEAT

Wheat prices traded lower. This week wheat prices have trended lower on weaker Russia wheat export prices. March KC wheat futures made new contract lows. Some feel the HRW supply and demand is heavy. Some could see US 2018/19 all wheat carryout closer to 1,080 mil bu versus USDA 1,010. This due to lower exports. At the same time some feel US 2019 all wheat crop could be near 1,970 mil bu vs 1,884 this year. This could suggest US 2019/20 Wheat carryout could remain near 1,080. Some feel US 2018/19 HRW carryout could be near 520 versus USDA 490. Despite lower 2019 acres 2019 HRW crop could be near 730 vs 660 this year.

May Chicago Wheat Daily Chart

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

February 15th, 2019|
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