October 8 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans, soymeal, corn and wheat traded higher. Soyoil traded lower. US stocks were lower. US Dollar was higher. Crude was lower.

SOYBEANS

Soybean and soymeal trade higher reversing an earlier lower trade. Concern about US and China trade talks offered early resistance to stocks and commodity prices. Concern that US Weather over the next 10 days could reduce crops in US northwest Midwest and talk USDA could lower US soybean supply on Thursday helped rally prices. SX traded over initial resistance near 9.20. Next objective could be 9.40. U.S. Soybeans dropping leaves was 72% versus 55% a week ago, 90% last year, and 87% average. U.S. Soybeans harvested was 14% (trade estimate was 15%) versus 7% a week ago, 31% last year, and 34% average. U.S. Soybeans were rated 53% good to excellent (trade estimate was 55%) versus 55% a week ago, and 68% a year ago. Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had soybeans 17% ahead of a year ago (up 6% last week) with the USDA having a 2% increase forecasted on the year. U.S. soybean exporters had a record fourth quarter with the soybean market hoping for renewed Chinese business.

Soybean Futures Chart

CORN

Corn futures traded higher reversing an earlier lower trade. Concern about US and China trade talks offered early resistance to stocks and commodity prices. Concern that US Weather over the next 10 days could reduce crops in US northwest Midwest and talk USDA could lower US corn supply on Thursday helped rally prices. CZ traded over initial resistance near 3.90. Next objective could be 4.20. U.S. Corn mature was 58% versus 43% a week ago, 92% last year, and 85% average. U.S. Corn harvested was 15% (trade estimate was 19%) versus 11% a week ago, 33% last year, and 27% average. US Corn was rated 56% good to excellent (trade estimate was 57%) versus 57% last week, and 68% a year ago. Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had  corn 66% behind a year ago (66% last week) with the USDA unchanged for the season. U.S. corn shipments slumped to a six-year low with overseas demand for U.S. corn starting off the new marketing year on an even worse note. Key to corn prices will be USDA Oct 10 numbers, US fall weather and if friendly news is enough to trigger fund short covering over 4.00 CZ.

Corn Futures Chart

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded higher and followed a rebound in corn prices. Unlike corn and soybean, traders are not looking for USDA to make significant changes to US and World wheat supply and demand numbers on Thursday versus September. The numbers still suggest adequate global and US supplies. There is concern that US north plains weather over the next 10 days could stress and already stressed US and Canada spring wheat crop. U.S. Winter Wheat planted is 52% (trade estimate was 54%) versus 39% last week, 55% a year ago, 53% average. U.S. Winter Wheat emerged was 26% versus 11% last week, 28% a year ago, 26% average. U.S. Spring wheat harvested was 91% (trade estimate was 94%) versus 90% last week, 100% a year ago, 99% average. Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had US Wheat exports running 21% ahead of a year ago (23% last week) with the USDA currently fore casting a 4% increase on the year.

Wheat Futures Chart

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-10-08T20:49:07+00:00 October 8th, 2019|