By Steve Freed
Soybeans and soymeal traded higher. Soyoil corn and wheat traded lower. US stock and US Dollar traded lower. Gold and Crude traded higher.
Soybeans found early support after USDA weekly crop ratings dropped from last week. Talk of slower World economy offered resistance and offset talk that US Fed will lower interest rates soon. Better than expected rains moved out of Iowa and fell across the dry areas of IL. There is still some concern that the final US 2019 soybean crop could be lower than USDA August estimate. US soybean crop is late and a longer range US Midwest weather forecast calling for normal rains and below normal temps across the NW ½ of the Midwest could slow crop maturity. USDA estimated that 68 pct of the soybean crop was setting pods versus 85 average. Highest rated soybean states are TN, KY, NE, MS and ND. Lowest rated soybean states are MO, OH, IN, MI and IL. One private crop scout suggested today that 2020 Brazil soybean crop could be near 124.0 mmt vs 117 this year. Same group could see the Argentina 2020 soybean crop be near 56 mmt vs 56 this year. Same group reported that the Argentina government is asking for the largest loan ever from IMF. IMF wants a plan for increase revenues to approve the loan. In the past this includes increase export taxes Argentina farmer is a reluctant seller of grain due to raging inflation.
Corn closed lower and near session lows. Corn futures found early support after USDA lowered weekly US corn crop ratings. Corn prices were also supported by fact Pro Farmer annual crop tour estimated that OH and SD corn yields could be lower than USDA August estimate. Trade also found support from fact crop is late and a cooler than normal 2 week US Midwest forecast could slow maturity. Highest rated corn states are PA, TN, KY, NE and lowest rated corn states are MO, OH, IN, MI and IL. Glob of rain that moved out of IA this morning and into IL may be weighing on prices. USDA estimated the 15 pct of the corn crop is dented versus 30 average. There continues to be a broad range of estimates for the US 2019 corn crop. The low estimate for the corn crop is near 12,900 mil bu while the high is USDA 13,900. August 1 US cattle on feed is expected near 101 pct, placements near 100 pc and marketings 106 pct. There is talk that US ethanol margins may have improved due to drop in corn prices. Still stocks are near record high. One private crop scout suggested today that 2020 Brazil corn crop could be near 105 mmt vs 100 this year. Same group could see the Argentina 2020 corn crop near 51 mmt vs 49 this year. Same group reported that the Argentina government is asking for the largest loan ever from IMF. IMF wants a plan for increase revenues to approve the loan. In the past this includes increase export taxes especially corn. Argentina farmer is a reluctant seller of grain due to raging inflation.
Wheat futures traded lower. Collapse in EU and Black Sea wheat prices offered resistance. Russian wheat export prices have dropped to $191 vs $196 early in Augusta and $225 last year. French cash wheat prices have dropped to new season lows near $186. A year ago French prices were near $245-$250. US HRW export prices are near $200. EU and Black Sea exporters also report buying are buying hand to mouth and not adding to inventories. USDA has non China World demand increasing 20 mmt yoy. Last year from August to final USDA eventually dropped World demand 18 mmt and trade 14 mmt. USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 70 pct good/ex versus 69 last week and 74 last year. 16 pct of the crop is harvested vs 8 last week and 49 average. Wheat prices are trying to find a level to increase demand. That prices appears to be lower.
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