By Steve Freed
Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat traded lower. US stocks, Crude and US Dollar were higher. Gold was lower. US trying to down play talk of recession.
Soybean traded lower. Weekend Midwest rains and talk that weekly US soybean ratings could actually improve 1 pct offered resistance. Annual Pro Farmer crop tour starts today with crop watchers starting in west and east and meeting in the middle on Thursday. Last year the tour average soybean yield was 53.0 vs USDA final 51.6. Weekly US soybean export inspections were near 42 mil bu vs 24 last year. China was 20 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 1,597 mil bu vs 2,006 last year. USDA goal is 1,700 vs 2,134 last year. In South America last week Brazil farmer was a big seller of soybeans. China was also a big buyer of 30 Brazil soybean cargoes. Drop in currency has slowed Argentina farmer selling of soybeans. Some have now accepted USDA August corn and soybean crop acres, yield and production numbers. We will see what Pro Farmer says this week. Some estimate now that a US 2019 soybean crop near 3,680 mil bu versus 3,845 previous and 4,544 last year could also suggest that exports could drop to only 1,800 mil bu. This could keep the US 2019/20 carryout near 665 mil bu vs USDA 755 and still be adequate for demand. For some this includes a drop in exports of 250 mil bu from last month.
Corn futures traded lower. Talk of slow export demand and fear that USDA August numbers could eventually be proven right offered resistance. Weekend Midwest rains also weighed on prices. Weekly US corn export inspections were near 20 mil bu vs 43 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,817 vs 2,171 last year. USDA goal is 2,100 vs 2,438 last year. In South America last week Brazil famer was a big seller of corn. Brazil and Black Sea corn prices remain a discount to US. Some have now accepted USDA August corn and soybean crop acres, yield and production numbers. We will see what Pro Farmer says this week. Some could see a US 2019 corn crop near 13,900 mil bu versus 13,360 previous and 14,420 last year could also suggest that exports could drop to only 1,800 mil bu. This could raise the US 2019/20 carryout to near 2,440 mil bu vs USDA 2,181 and be more than adequate for demand. For some this includes a drop in exports of 230 mil bu from last month.
Wheat futures traded lower. Wheat prices continue to follow corn. Corn prices are lower on concern about export demand and US crop enough to satisfy demand. Outside market were higher. Last week, there was concern about a US and World recession. This weekend, US White House was trying to down play the threat of a recession. Talk that US Fed Chairman this week will open the door for a drop in US rates at their September meeting helped US Dollar and US stocks. This weighed on feed grain and wheat prices. Weekly US wheat export inspections were near 18 mil bu vs 18 last year. Season to date exports are near 200 vs 160 last year. USDA goal is 975 vs 936 last year. USDA est World 2019/20 wheat demand near 758 mmt and trade near 183 mmt. Last year demand was near 736 mmt with trade near 173. USDA also est World crop near 768 mmt and end stocks near 285 mmt vs 730 and 275 last year. This increase supply offers resistance to prices.
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