July 22 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat traded lower. Slow weekly US exports and a wetter US Midwest weather outlook weighed on prices. Crude was higher.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans traded lower. US crop is late and rated below average and last year but a break in the hot temps, rains across the north and SE areas offered resistance. Central Midwest missed the rains but some are forecasted for later this week. Weekly US soybean export inspections were near 20 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 1,443 mil bu vs 1,899 last year. USDA goal is 1,700 vs 2,134 last year. Total US soybean commit is near 48.6 mmt vs 57.6 last year. There was talk that China crushers may be asking about US prices. China tariff on US imported soybeans suggest South America is still cheaper. U of IL estimates IL soybean farmer 2019 crop revenue near $557. This assumes $9.00 and 55 yield. Total expenses are estimated near $629. This includes $274 rent. Projected loss per acres; $72. 2020 loss projected near $58. Trade estimates US soybean crop is still rated near 54 pct good/ex.

Soybean Futures Chart

CORN

Corn futures traded lower. Weekend rains across the north and SE areas plus a break in the hot temps weighed on prices. Low weekly US corn exports and talk crushers may take downtime due to low margins also weighed on prices. Weekly US corn export inspections were only 17 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 1,716 mil bu vs 1.961 last year. USDA goal is 2,100 vs 2,438 last year. Total corn commit is near 49.6 mmt vs 58.7 last year. USDA export goal is 53.3 mmt vs 61.9 ly. World corn trade is estimated near 172.3 mmt vs 148.7 last year. US share has dropped to 31 pct. Most loom for weekly US corn crop rating to remain near 58 pct good/ex. Key to prices will be rest of July and August Midwest weather. USDA est the crop near 13,875 mil bu vs 14,420 last year, USDA yield is near 166.0. Some could see final yield closer to 13,365 milo bu with the yield closer to 161.8. U of IL estimates IL corn farmer 2019 crop revenue near $900. This assumes $4.50 and 185 yield. Total expenses are estimated near $866. This includes $274 rent. Projected profit per acres; $34. 2020 loss projected near $37.

Corn Futures Chart

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded lower and followed corn. There is too much wheat in the World and more need to be fed to increase demand. US winter wheat harvest is near the end and yield have been reported above expectations. US spring wheat crop is rated above average and 30 day forecast call for normal to above rains and normal temps. There was talk that as harvest progresses, Russia winter wheat yields have drop below expectations. Still increase farmer selling has weighed on prices. Weekly US wheat export inspections were 16 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 125 mil bu vs 98 last year. USDA goal is 950 vs 936 last year. Total wheat commit is near 7.8 mmt vs 6.4 last year. USDA export goal is 25.8 mmt vs 25.4 ly. World wheat trade is estimated near 183.1 mmt vs 174.0 last year. US share is only 14 pct.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2019-07-22T20:50:16+00:00 July 22nd, 2019|