July 22 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Mixed trade. Soybeans, soymeal and soyoil were unchanged. Corn and wheat traded down to session lows. US Dollar was lower. Crude was lower.

SOYBEANS

Since Sunday, the funds have been net sellers on forecast of better US Midwest weather. Most of the US soybean crop is 2-3 weeks behind normal. Overnight rains were better than expected in parts of Iowa and Illinois. Hot temps over the weekend should break early next week. 6-10 day calls for below normal rains and temps. Some feel next weeks USDA crop rating could drop 1-2 pct. Still demand bears were early sellers today. US soybean export commit is near 48.6 mmt vs 57.6 last year. USDA export goal is 46.2 mmt vs 58.0 ly. World soybean trade is estimated near 150.0 mmt vs 153.0 last year. US share has dropped to 31 pct. Brazil export goal is 77.2 mmt vs 76.1 last year. China imports are estimated near 85.0 mmt vs 94.1 last year. Talk of China buying South America soybeans this week supported prices.

Soybeans Futures Chart

CORN

Corn futures closed lower. Funds continue to be net sellers. Last week, prices rallied on talk of hotter and drier US Midwest weather stressing the US crop. There is also talk that final US corn acres could be lower than USDA June guess. Since Sunday, the funds have been net sellers on forecast of better US Midwest weather. Most of the US corn crop is 2-3 weeks behind normal. Overnight rains were better than expected in parts of Iowa and Illinois. Hot temps over the weekend should break early next week. 6-10 day calls for below normal rains and temps. Some feel next weeks USDA crop rating could drop 1-2 pct. Still demand bears were early sellers today. US corn export commit is near 49.6 mmt vs 58.7 last year. USDA export goal is 53.3 mmt vs 61.9 ly. World corn trade is estimated near 172.3 mmt vs 148.7 last year. US share has dropped to 31 pct. Talk that Argentina export corn prices are 60 cents below US limits new US corn export demand. Loud talk that US acres could be near 89.0 and yield near 166 also triggers some long liquidation.

Corn Futures Chart

WHEAT

Wheat futures followed corn lower today. There is too much wheat in the World and US exports are a small part of global trade. US prices are a premium and limits new business. US HRW harvest is winding down with yields better than expected and farmer a good seller. US SRW harvest yields were also better than expected. US wheat export commit is near 7.8 mmt vs 6.4 last year. USDA export goal is 25.8 mmt vs 25.4 ly. World wheat trade is estimated near 183.1 mmt vs 174.0 last year. US share is only 14 pct. USDA estimates World 2019/20 crop near 771 mmt vs 731 last year. End stocks are 286 vs 275 last year. Russia is talking about a 15 year investment plan to increase grain production to 150 mmt versus 118 this year and exports close to 56 mmt versus 45 this year. This could drop need for US exports and weigh on prices.

Wheat Futures Chart

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-07-18T20:12:46+00:00 July 18th, 2019|