July 11 Afternoon Grain Commentary

by Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

USDA WOB used the NASS latest soybean acres. Many feel that the NASS US soybean acres are too low. USDA estimated the July 1 US soybean crop is near 3,845 mil bu. Yield was dropped to 48.6 from 49.5. Most feel final acres could be higher which could add to the carryout. USDA lowered US 2019/20 soybean supply 305 mil bu. At the same time they dropped exports 75 mil bu. Net result was a carryout of 795 vs 1,045 in June. If I add acres and weather is normal the carryout could still be closer to 985. USDA estimates World 2019/20 crop near 347 mmt vs 355 previous and 363 last year. Crush is est at 307 mt vs 308 last month and 301 last year. Exports are 151 mmt vs 150 last year. This leaves end stocks near 104 million tonnes versus 112 in June and 113 ly. SX support is 9.00. Resistance is near 9.25.

July 11 Soybean Ending Stocks

CORN 

Corn futures traded lower after the USDA report was released. Corn futures quickly turned higher following wheat and on feelings that the USDA current estimate of acres and yield is too high for current conditions. USDA is resurveying acres in 14 key states and could revise acres in August. Still we may not know actual acres until USDA gets the report that show acres base on farmer insurance participation which is usually available in October. Given lateness of the crop the best yield estimate may also not be available until October. USDA raised US 2019/20 corn supply 195 mil bu. At the same time they raised beginning stocks 145 mil bu. Net result was a carryout of 2,010 vs 1,675 in June. If I lower acres and lower the final yield the carryout could be closer to 1,354. This includes lower feed use, lower ethanol use and lower exports. USDA estimates World 2019/20 crop near 1,105 mmt vs 1,122 last year. Domestic use is est at 1,135 mt vs 1,133 last year. Exports are 170 mmt vs 172 last year. This leaves end stocks near 299 mmt versus 328 ly. CZ support is 4.30. Resistance is near 4.54.

WHEAT

Wheat futures closed sharply higher after USDA lowered US and World 2019/20 ending stocks more than expected. WZ traded back over the 200 day moving average. Next resistance is 5.40. Support is 5.10. USDA lowered US 2019/20 wheat supply 12 mil bu. At the same time they raised exports 50 mil bu and feed 10. Net result was a carryout of 1,000 vs 1,072 in June. USDA est US 2019/20 HRW end stocks bear 426 mil bu vs 506 last year. SRW is 125 vs 158 ly. HRS is 323 vs 265 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales were 10 mil bu. Total commit is near 275 vs 225 ly. . USDA estimates World 2019/20 crop near 771 mmt vs 731 last year. Domestic use is est at 760 mt vs 736 last year. Exports are 183 mmt vs 174 last year. This leaves end stocks near 286 mmt versus 294 in June and 275 ly.

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2019-07-11T19:31:47+00:00 July 11th, 2019|