May 22 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans, soyoil and soymeal ended higher. Corn was unchanged. Wheat was mixed to lower. Crude was lower. US stocks were quietly lower.

SOYBEANS

Another interesting day. Most markets were lower after the President of China said China will not cave in anytime soon. This could suggest that there may not be any US and China trade deal until after the 2020 US Presidential election. Soybeans though found support after US Ag Secretary said that reports of a US farmer aid payment were inaccurate media stories (fake news?) Secretary said that payments will be designed as not to skew 2019 planting intentions. Initial word that soybean farmers would receive a 2.00 payment on 2019 acres raised talk that famers would increase soybean acres. US Midwest weather forecast is still wet through June 2.  Weekly old crop and new crop US soybean export sales are estimated near 100-500 mt. Total commit is near 45.2 mmt vs 55.3 last year. USDA goal is 48.3 mmt vs 58.0 last year.

Soybean Futures Chart

CORN

Corn futures were unchanged. Overnight prices were lower on what some thought was consolidation from an overbought technical situation. US farmer has also been an active seller of cash on the recent rally. Corn found resistance after US Ag Secretary said that reports of a US farmer aid payment were inaccurate media stories (fake news?). Secretary said that payments will be designed as not to skew 2019 planting intentions. Initial word that corn farmers would receive only a 4 cent payment on 2019 corn acres rallied corn prices on Tuesday. US Midwest weather forecast is still wet through June 2. This has raised talk that US 2019 corn acres may be down as much as 4.0-4.5 million acres. This has some looking for higher corn prices. Weekly US ethanol production was up from last week and last year. Stocks were also higher than last week and last year. Margins continue to sink lower on slow domestic and export demand. Trade estimates that cattle on feed will be up 2.9 percent on Friday report. April placements could be up 13 percent. April marketing’s could be up 6.6 pct. Weekly old crop and new crop US corn export sales are estimated near 250-900 mt. Total commit is near 46.9 mmt vs 52.6 last year. USDA goal is 58.4 mmt vs 61.9 last year.

Corn Futures Chart

WHEAT

July Chicago wheat futures have rallied from contract lows near 4.18 to test the 100 day moving average near 4.82. Much of the rally is due to a wet US spring that could reduce the quality of the US 2019 winter wheat crop. Fact USDA raised this week winter wheat crop rating especially HRW states offered resistance. Wheat also rallied in concert with corn. Concern about lower US 2019 corn crop could increase chance for more wheat feeding. Wire service reported that US may offer US farmers 63 cents per bushels for wheat to aid drop in prices due to the ongoing trade battle between US and China. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 100-500 mt. Total commit is near 25.6 mmt vs 23.6 last year. USDA goal is 25.2 mmt vs 24.5 last year. USDA estimates total World exports near 176.7 mmt vs 180.7 last year. USDA estimates World 2019/20 wheat exports near 184.6 mmt with US share near 24.4. Wheat failed to trade over key 5.00 resistance. World fundamentals do not warrant a rally over 5.00 unless there are more US weather problems.

Wheat Futures Chart

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-05-22T19:14:39+00:00 May 22nd, 2019|