by ADMIS Research Team
July soybeans are trading firmer pushing up to 917 and trading at 915 up 3 ¼ cents on the day. July soybean meal is trading at $313.90 up $1.10 on the day and July soybean oil is down .05 points at 29.30. US exporters announced the sale of 133,759 tonnes of soybeans to Unknown destinations this morning. Mild support continues from yesterday’s USDA report which was considered neutral to slightly friendly with US ending stocks coming in at 895 million bushels versus the average estimate of 912 million bushels and compared to 900 million in March. World ending stocks came in at 107.0 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 108.2 million and compared to 107.4 million tonnes in March. The USDA wants to wait out the ongoing US/China trade negotiations for another month or so before they address the slow pace of exports. Secretary Mnuchin, in testimony on Capitol Hill yesterday, said China was committed to a significant amount of orders for US soybeans and “they are in the markets executing those orders”.
For Thursday’s Conab report, analysts estimate Brazil’s soybean production at 114.8 million tonnes, up from last month’s estimate of 113.5 million and compared to yesterday’s USDA estimate at 117.0 million tonnes. Agrural raised their Brazilian production to 114.6 million tonnes from 112.9 million previously. Soybean open interest went up 11,144 contracts on Tuesday and is at highest level since October 29th. Soybean meal open interest went up 979 contracts and soybean oil open interest went down 3,926 contracts.
Chicago July wheat pushed down to 460 early in the session, the lowest price level since March 29th. The market traded at 462 ½ at mid-day. Kansas City July wheat is trading at 434 ½, down ¾ cent. Minneapolis July wheat is up 6 ½ cents at 537 ¾ as spring wheat planting progress will struggle as the late season winter storm could bring 12-24 inch snowfall for parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Nebraska. Algeria is tendering for wheat today and Bangladesh is tendering for 50,000 tonnes of wheat as well. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the 2019-20 wheat production at a record 20.6 million tonnes compared to 19.0 million last year.
July corn traded up to 371 ¾, up 3 ¼ cents at one point and up 7 ¾ from yesterday’s low at 364. The market traded at 370 ½ up 2 cents at mid-day. Some support is seen from today’s ethanol production report for the week ending April 5th at 1.002 million barrels per day. This is up 0.30% vs. last week and down 3.09% vs. last year. Total Ethanol production for the week was 7.014 million barrels. Corn used in last week’s production is estimated at 103.33 million bushels. This crop year’s cumulative corn used for ethanol production for this crop year is 3.28 billion bushels. Corn use needs to average 104.872 million bushels per week to meet this crop year’s USDA estimate of 5.5 billion bushels. Stocks as of April 5 were 23.193 million barrels. This is down 3.33% vs. last week and up 6.17% vs. last year.
The continued uncertainty of a US/China trade deal continues to test trader’s patience. Secretary Perdue commented yesterday that China and the US have discussed reducing ethanol tariffs. He also said that the US-China talks remain positive, “but it’s not over until it’s over”. Wet weather with 12-24 inches of snow is falling over the western corn-belt and Northern Plains today which will keep producers out of fields into late April. The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are still showing above normal precipitation through April 23rd. The open interest in corn went up 8,789 contracts on Tuesday.
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