March 13 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybean and soymeal edged higher. Corn ended unchanged. Wheat was lower. US stocks rallied on better than expected US economic data. Crude was also higher.


Much of todays soybean trade was linked in part to rumors China may have bought US corn and sorghum for summer and fall shipments. There was also talk that March 29 could be a possible signing date for a new trade deal between US and China. Some are estimating US 2019 soybean acres near 85.5 mil vs 89.2 last year. This could produce a crop near 4,340 mil bu versus 4,544 last year. This includes a yield near 51.0 vs 51.6 ly. Much of the drop in productions is in the eastern states. Lower crop is offset by higher carryin supplies. These large supplies offers strong overhead resistance to prices. US domestic cash has firmed of steady soymeal demand and slow farmer selling.  Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 1,200-1,900 mt vs 311 last week. Some estimate World 2019 soybean crops near 370 mmt vs 358 last year. This is on a record 129 million hectares vs 125 last year.

Soybean Futures Chart


Corn futures closed unchanged. Rumors that China had bought US corn and sorghum helped support higher prices. Lack of confirmation offered equal resistance. This week both USTR and Treasury Secretary told Congress a deal could be within weeks. There were some that even speculated that a deal could be signed March 29. Some are now estimating US 2019 corn crop near 14,936 mil bu vs 14.420 last year. Most of increase is in the west states. This includes a yield near 177.0 vs 176.4 last year. A few are estimating World 2019 corn crop near 1,102 mmt vs 1,100 this year. This is on 189.9 million hectares vs 189.2 las year. Record World acres was in 2016 at  194.7. Weekly US ethanol production was down from last week and last year. Stocks were also down from last week and last year, Margins are improving but still negative. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 800-1,200 mt vs 970 last week. A few risk managers are suggesting to corn feed users to cover as much as 50 pct of their corn feed needs into September at/near 3.77 CN.

Corn Futures Chart


Wheat futures gave back some of Tuesdays gains. Some feel Tuesdays gains were more technical related than fundamental. Wheat futures had become oversold with funds increasing net short position on increase volume and open interest. World 2019 wheat crop is still estimated to bounce back to near 770 mmt vs 731 last year. This is on 221 million hectares vs 215 last year. Record acres were in 2009. Some estimate US 2019 all wheat acres near 110 year lows and 46.7 vs 47.8 last year. This is expected to produce a crop near 2,000 mil bu vs 1,884 this year. This assume a yield near 49.0 vs 47.6 last year. US plains and Midwest soils are wet. This week, USDA raised crop ratings in KS and OK and dropped ratings in TX. ARK ratings were below average due to too much rain. Wheat futures and World prices near season lows. US trade delegation assures analyst a new trade deal with China will include US wheat.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2019-03-13T21:23:02+00:00 March 13th, 2019|