February 14 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans, soymeal, corn and wheat were lower. Talk that POTUS may extend trade talks with China 60 days was met with a bearish bias suggesting and new deal may be delayed. Trade awaits any new headline from the talks for price direction. Weak weekly US export sales also offered resistance even if they were for the week of Jan 3.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans traded lower on news China had cancelled open US unshipped soybean sales. Some blame the cancellations on lower demand due to the continued spread of the Africa Swine fever. Other also suggest a slower China economy could be reducing food demand. Next USDA export sales report will be issued Friday Feb 22 and will include all sales as of Feb 14. This should include the 10 mmt recently sold to China. US Annual Ag Outlook Conference is next week as long as there is no government shutdown. Trade will be looking for their estimate of US 2019/20 supply and demand. Informa estimated US 2019 soybean acres near 86.0 vs 89.2 last year. This suggest a crop near 4,368 vs 4,544 last year. They continue to forecast November soybean futures price near 8.00 in the fall vs 9.50 today.  

Soybean Futures Chart

CORN

Corn futures traded lower following the lower wheat and soybean trade. Talk of mostly favorable Black Sea and South America weather may have weighed on prices. There are est the 2019 Black Sea and South America corn production could increase 38 mmt over ly. Weekly US corn export sales were near 18 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,271 mil bu vs 1,067 ly. USDA goal is 2,450 vs 2,438 last year. There is talk that Argentina corn prices are cheaper than US. This raises the question will some open origin unshipped corn sales be switched to Argentina. At the same time there is talk that China may be interested in buying US corn if there is trade deal. Informa estimated US 2019 corn acres near 91.6 million vs 89.1 last year. This suggest a crop near 14,908 vs 14,420 last year. They continue to forecast December corn near 3.80 in the fall vs 4.00 today.

Corn Futures Chart

WHEAT

Wheat futures trade lower and below last weeks lows. Weakness was part due to lower Black Sea wheat prices. 85 pct of the World wheat trade in non US. World wheat prices may have more of an impact on futures than US data. There are est the 2019 World wheat production could increase 36 mmt over last year. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 5 mil bu. Total commit is near 658 mil bu vs 718 last year. USDA goal is 1,000 vs 901 last year. Some still feel USDA forecast may be too high. Next USDA export sales report will be issued Friday Feb 22 and will include all sales as of Feb 14.  Informa estimated US 2019 all wheat acres near 46.8 vs 47.8 last year. This suggest a crop near 1,972 vs 1,884 last year. They continue to forecast December Chicago wheat near 4.80 vs 5.35 today.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2019-02-14T20:40:23+00:00 February 14th, 2019|