By Steve Freed
Grains were mixed. SF is up 2 cents and near 9.14. CH is unchanged and near 3.85. WH is down 4 cents and near 5.18. US Dollar is higher. US stocks futures are higher. Crude is slightly higher.
March soybean futures are holding small gains. Talk that China may soon buy US Soybean offers support. Resistance is near 9.20. Support is near 9.00. Demand bulls are surprised that soybean futures are not higher. Some feel eventually China will buy 5 mmt of old crop and new crop soybeans once China tariffs are removed. Still there is plenty of beans in the World and 2019 crops could be larger than demand. Average trade est for US 2018/19 soybean carryout is near 945 mil bu, almost unchanged from USDA November Estimate of 955. Trade also estimates World soybean 2018/19 end stocks near 112.8 mm vs USDA November estimate of 112.0. US farmers remain reluctant sellers waiting for a US and China deal.
March corn futures trade over the previous days high. Momentum of the market is becoming overbought, March corn futures resistance remains near 3.90. March corn gapped above key moving averages. Support is near 3.77-3.79. Average trade est for US 2018/19 corn carryout is near 1,738 mil bu, almost unchanged from USDA November Estimate of 1,736. Trade also estimates World corn 2018/19 end stocks near 307.6 mmt vs USDA November estimate of 307.5. Talk of rains next week across parts of south Brazil And Argentina should help crop conditions there. There is talk that US farmers have been active sellers of cash the last few days.
March Chicago wheat futures rejected the 5.30 level. WH is now back below support near 5.19. Support from last April continues to be near 5.00. Some of todays weakens may be linked to talk of deescalating tension in the Black Sea. Average trade est for US 2018/19 wheat carryout is near 956 mil bu, almost unchanged from USDA November estimate of 949. Trade also estimates World soybean 2018/19 end stocks near 266.8 mmt vs USDA November estimate of 266.7. US 2019 wheat crop could be 57 mmt vs 51 ly, EU 156 mmt vs 137, FSU 134 vs 125 ly and Australia 24 vs 16 this year. If there is a deal with China some hear within China that China could buy as much as 7 mmt US wheat, 12 mmt corn, 8 mmt soybeans and 3 mmt US ethanol.
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