Aug 8 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Soybean and soymeal futures found support from a rally in China soybean and soymeal futures. Could have also been some evening up before US weekly export sales and Fridays USDA report. Overnight, China soybean and soymeal futures had their highest daily rally since 2008. Word that China July soybean imports were down 20 pct from last year and Jan-July imports were down 4 pct suggested that China soybean supply may be declining without US imports. Soymeal futures may also be supported by talk of declining Argentina soymeal supplies. Soybean and soymeal could be in for a real roller coaster ride. Friday report could be bearish, Argentina could run low on soymeal (bullish) and trade spat between US and China should be bearish. Weekly US old crop soybean sales are est
near 100-400 mt vs 94 last week new crop 300-600 vs 543.

Soybean Ending Stocks

Corn futures managed only limited gains on reduced volume. Dec corn has had a nice rally from the July lows near 3.50 to recent highs near 3.88. Dec corn is now up against resistance near 3.90. There are also key moving averages near 3.93-3.95. Most feel that corn could still rally and actually make new highs after US harvest. This due to drop in World supplies and the potential for an increase in demand for US exports. First key is Friday USDA report and their estimate of the US 2018 corn yield. Lower than expected number could trigger more fund short covering and push prices higher. Key then will USĀ farmer increase cash sales. Weekly US ethanol; production was above last week and last year. Stocks were also above last week and last year. Weekly US old crop corn sales are est near 300-600 mt vs 292 last week and new crop 400-900 vs 986 last week. Noon US weather maps Increased chances for Midwest rains in the 6-10 day and 11-16 day time frame.

Corn Ending Stocks

Wheat futures managed limited gains. Talk of lower World supplies continues to offer support. Some profit taking in Euro wheat futures may have triggered some long liquidation here. Some feel US wheat futures may be overbought and due for a correction. There were rumors today that Russia may soon impose an export tax on wheat. Some feel this to try to get their farmers to sell wheat. There are also rumors that Ukraine could limit wheat exports to 8.0 mmt vs USDA est of 16.5. Some analyst also reported that in years when World wheat supplies drop high in wheat future are made in February. Same group suggest World wheat crop could be 18-20 mmt below USDA current estimate. WZ needs to make new highs to attract new buying. Weekly US wheat sales are est near 200-500 mt vs 382 last week.

Wheat Ending stocks

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2018-08-08T19:46:51+00:00 August 8th, 2018|